Oshkosh Raises Cash Flow Outlook to $700 Million Despite Lower Profit Forecast
Key Facts
The move followed the company’s third-quarter results and updated full-year outlook, with the figures combining an improved free cash flow forecast with lower profit and sales estimates. Oshkosh said in its earnings release that consolidated sales rose 5.7% year over year to $2.84 billion in the quarter. But consolidated operating income fell 24.3% to $197.1 million, equal to 6.9% of sales. The company attributed the decline mainly to an unfavorable sales mix and higher selling, general and administrative expenses.
For its outlook, Oshkosh cut its 2026 adjusted earnings per share range to $8.50–$9.50, $1.50–$2.50 below its latest prior guidance, and set diluted earnings per share at $8.00–$9.00. The company lowered its full-year net sales forecast to about $11.0 billion, down $0.2 billion from its previous estimate. It said the revision reflected lower production of fire trucks and NGDV vehicles, partly offset by higher sales volume in the Access segment. By contrast, company officials said at the earnings conference on October 29 that expected 2026 free cash flow was between $600 million and $700 million, an increase of $50 million from the previous guidance. The cash flow range rose while annual profit and sales forecasts narrowed.
The vocational vehicles segment was among the sources of pressure on results, with sales down 7.0% year over year to $899.9 million in the third quarter. Oshkosh said lower fire truck production was tied to challenges in manufacturing modernization initiatives. Chief Executive John Pfeifer said, "Productivity improvements are taking longer than we previously expected," adding that the company was working to improve material flow and production scheduling. The company said its fire truck backlog remained elevated and that production measures it was taking were expected to increase output over time. In its previous guidance, issued on July 28, the company had forecast 2026 adjusted earnings of $11.00 and net sales of about $11.2 billion, showing the scale of the subsequent cuts to its estimates.
By contrast, the Access segment supported quarterly sales growth, with higher sales volume and improved pricing across all three segments, according to the company’s release; this was partly offset by lower sales volume in the vocational segment. In its second-quarter report, the company had said demand for Access equipment was strong, citing orders of $1.5 billion. The segment’s backlog also rose to $2.7 billion on September 30, 2026, compared with $721 million a year earlier, an increase of 268.2%. Oshkosh linked some of the demand to selected national rental companies’ purchases of 2027 equipment and to construction equipment needs for data centers and megaprojects. The possibility that the company would receive no NGDV orders during 2026 remains included at the lower end of its earnings range; it said this could reduce earnings by up to $0.50 per share.
The company also said its board approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.57 per common share, payable on November 30, 2026, to shareholders of record on November 16. Production constraints for fire trucks and NGDV vehicles remain among the factors in its annual guidance, alongside improved sales in Access. The company’s July estimate included 2026 net sales of $11.2 billion, before it lowered the forecast to about $11.0 billion in its October update. Adjusted earnings per share moved from July guidance of $11.00 to a range of $8.50–$9.50. The free cash flow update, which raised the forecast by $50 million, puts the annual liquidity outlook alongside these operating and financial revisions.