Global Phosphate Exports Fall More Than 9% as Hormuz Shipping Is Disrupted
Key Facts
Global phosphate exports fell more than 9% in January–June 2026 compared with the same period last year, according to data from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The decline coincided with shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which reduced flows of materials used in fertilizer production and raised the cost of some agricultural products. The institute said global elemental sulfur exports fell 33% in the first half of the year, to 9 million tonnes from 13.5 million tonnes a year earlier. It attributed the decline to the strait's closure, lower exports from Kazakhstan and export restrictions imposed by producing countries. The figures show that the crisis affected not only shipments of finished fertilizers but also the raw materials needed to produce them.
Phosphate losses varied among major exporters: Saudi Arabia's exports fell 22% in the first half, while exports from China fell by 450,000 tonnes, Morocco by 374,000 tonnes and Russia by 182,000 tonnes, compared with the same period in 2025. In May alone, global seaborne phosphate shipments fell 29% year on year to 4.2 million metric tonnes, according to S&P Global. Shipments from Morocco fell 47% and those from China 67%, while Saudi shipments recorded a limited decline of 1% after being rerouted to Yanbu on the Red Sea. The difference between the first-half and May figures indicates that supply routes and their outcomes varied among exporters. Rerouting Saudi shipments also limited the impact of Gulf disruption on the kingdom's exports that month.
Trade flows were not sufficient to offset declines across all types of fertilizer. U.S. exports of nitrogen fertilizers rose to 1.2 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, up nearly 60% from the same period last year, helping to offset some of the supply shortfall, according to IFPRI. By contrast, declines in phosphate and sulfur exports remained broad, leaving those markets exposed to shipping disruptions and limited supply. S&P Global estimated that seaborne bulk fertilizer shipments fell 19% year on year in May. It forecast global bulk fertilizer trade would decline about 20% in the second quarter, with sulfur shipments down 47%. The estimates reflect continued pressure on trade during the quarter despite the increase in U.S. nitrogen exports.
Shipping activity showed that periods when transit resumed did not lead to a meaningful return of fertilizer shipments. A ceasefire allowed some shipping to resume between mid-June and mid-July, but fertilizer products made up a very small share of transiting cargoes, according to IFPRI. After hostilities resumed in mid-July, fertilizer shipments through the strait returned to levels close to zero. In June, vessel transits rose 30% above pre-war levels, alongside an increase of 517,000 tonnes in sulfur exports through Hormuz between May and June, according to Kpler. But the company said the increase resulted from the departure of vessels that had been stranded, rather than a return to normal loading. Gulf ports were operating at about two-thirds of pre-war levels, after accounting for nearly half of sulfur exports before the conflict.
Supply constraints pushed prices higher: phosphate fertilizer prices rose about 30% after the war began and have remained at those levels since mid-May, according to IFPRI. Sulfur prices have more than doubled since the start of 2026 and risen more than 40% since the Strait of Hormuz was closed. More broadly, the World Bank's fertilizer price index rose more than 12% in the first quarter from the previous quarter, marking its sixth increase in seven quarters. The index reached its highest level since October 2022 in April. Urea prices also exceeded $850 per metric tonne in April, up 80% since February and at their highest level since April 2022. These moves have left fertilizer and feedstock prices elevated as shipping disruptions continue.
The World Bank expects its fertilizer price index to rise more than 30% in 2026, then decline in 2027 as exports recover and additional global supplies emerge. This outlook is tied to the restoration of trade flows, while continued shipping restrictions or a renewed conflict pose risks of higher prices. In the near term, S&P Global forecast that global fertilizer shipments would fall only about 1% year on year in the third quarter of 2026. It expects fertilizer trade activity to recover gradually in late third quarter and early fourth quarter, while market volatility remains linked to sulfur shortages and delayed loading in the Gulf. The pace of recovery will depend on continued improvement in supplies and shipping routes.