China Raises Gold and Nickel Resource Estimates, Buys 23 Tonnes of Gold in September
Key Facts
China announced the results of a national reassessment of mineral resources, showing that the estimated increase in gold reserves was equivalent to 50 large deposits and the increase in nickel resources to 30 large deposits. The figures reflect resource estimates following a national survey and do not necessarily mean new deposits were discovered, according to a report published by Investing.com citing Xinhua. The announcement comes as the People’s Bank of China continues to buy gold, adding 23 tonnes in September, its largest monthly increase since October 2023, according to the World Gold Council. China’s official holdings reached 2,410 tonnes, equivalent to 8.5% of its total reserves. Meanwhile, October data showed manufacturing activity contracted and demand indicators weakened, placing the resource announcement and official gold purchases in a weaker economic context.
The yearlong survey covered 17 strategic minerals and more than 1,800 large and medium-sized mines and mining sites. More than 100 institutions and about 2,000 surveyors took part, with the work spanning 27 provinces, regions and municipalities, according to the report published by Investing.com citing Xinhua. Discovered rhenium resources also rose by more than 200%, according to figures released by the Ministry of Natural Resources. The assessment included associated resources and low-grade deposits, as well as deposits previously considered difficult to exploit. The recorded increase in gold and nickel estimates therefore describes a reassessment of the resource base and does not establish that China bought new physical stocks of either metal.
Separate from the mineral resource estimates, the official sector’s gold accumulation streak extended to 23 months through September, and third-quarter purchases reached 63 tonnes, the strongest quarter since the third quarter of 2023. Additions since the start of 2026 totaled about 103 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. Despite the increase in gold holdings, the value of China’s foreign exchange and gold reserves fell 2% in September to $3.8 trillion, mainly because of a decline in foreign exchange assets. The figures highlight continued official gold buying alongside a drop in the total value of reserves during the month. An amendment to the Mineral Resources Law, which took effect on 1 July 2025, established a legal framework for a national system to stockpile critical minerals and respond to emergencies.
China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index stood at 49.3% in October, down 0.8 percentage points from September, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The new orders index also fell to 49.4%, down 1.1 percentage points, while the production index dropped to 49.8% after declining 1.9 percentage points. Other data showed new export orders fell to 48.7 in October from 50.0 in September, while the production index declined to 49.8 from 51.7, according to the Associated Press. The agency attributed weak factory demand in part to a decline in domestic demand linked to the yearslong property crisis. The published indicators point to weakness spreading from orders to production and exports in the manufacturing sector.
The downturn extended to non-manufacturing activity, with its index at 49.7% in October, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The services activity index was 50.0%, while the construction activity index stood at 48.0%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Weak demand was more pronounced in the non-manufacturing new orders sub-index, which fell to 44.4% after a decline of 2.1 percentage points. New construction orders stood at 40.0% and new services orders at 45.2%. The readings show a divergence within non-manufacturing activity: services at 50.0%, compared with contraction in construction and an overall index below the 50% threshold.
Chinese gold-backed exchange-traded funds added 11 tonnes in September, bringing holdings to 304 tonnes, a record month-end level, while assets under management fell 2% to 276 billion yuan, according to the World Gold Council. But China’s wholesale gold demand was 234 tonnes in the third quarter, down 21% year on year and 44% below the 10-year average of 418 tonnes. The council attributed the weakness mainly to a continued decline in jewellery consumption. In price data cited by the council, spot gold against the dollar fell from 4,020.565 on 29 October to 3,875.645 on 30 October. A price snapshot published on Investing.com also showed gold futures falling 3.63% to $3,884.90.
Plans to buy strategic metals have been discussed before. In March 2025, a report published by Business Times citing Bloomberg said China was planning to buy cobalt, copper, nickel and lithium, with purchase timings and quantities usually kept secret. Beijing aims to be able to meet demand during shortages, the report said, and the stocks could also be used to balance supply and stabilize prices. Current data on nickel concern an increase in resource estimates equivalent to 30 large deposits and do not establish that new purchases were made. The RatingDog/Caixin manufacturing index for October is due on 2 November 2026. The previous reading was 52.1, while the listed forecast was 51.5.