WTI Closes at $104.17, Brent at $113.89 as Hormuz Risks Persist
Key Facts
West Texas Intermediate closed at $104.17 a barrel on October 30, compared with $102 the previous day, while Brent rose to $113.89 from $110.80, according to EL7 data. The close followed a rise in futures during Friday’s session, with the WTI contract at about $104.18, up $2.18 or 2.1%, at 1045 GMT, according to Reuters. The December Brent contract was at $117.62, up $2.74 or 2.4% at the same time. Reuters attributed the price support to concerns about a potential escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict after the U.S. midterm elections and an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz that highlighted supply risks. Daily gains came as both crude benchmarks were heading for large monthly increases.
Oil prices were heading for a fourth consecutive monthly gain, according to a Reuters report published Friday. The report estimated that Brent would end October up nearly 14%, while WTI was on track to rise about 15%. This monthly comparison differs from the daily closing prices recorded by EL7 data on October 30: the former measures the month’s performance up to that point, while the latter shows the two benchmarks’ levels at the close. In its account of Friday’s session, Reuters described the oil rally as tied to war-related supply risks, with particular focus on shipping through the Strait. It also quoted Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, as saying, "The oil market is getting increasingly concerned as the midterm elections approach."
On the maritime incident, UKMTO said a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz had been attacked with explosive devices attached by a small boat, and it was not immediately clear who was responsible, Reuters reported. Maritime security sources said a small boat attached two limpet mines to the hull of the Louise 1, causing a fire in the engine room and temporarily disabling the vessel. The incident occurred Thursday 25 nautical miles, or 46 kilometers, northeast of Oman’s Khasab, according to UKMTO. The agency said the crew was safe, there was no environmental impact, and the vessel continued on its way. These details describe one attack reported to the maritime agency, while the identity of those responsible remained immediately unknown.
Iran’s account that three oil tankers were hit by mines while attempting to leave the Strait via an unauthorized route could not be confirmed by the Associated Press. The agency reported that Tehran said the incidents occurred Thursday, but its report did not establish that those tankers had been hit. This distinction follows an initial draft that referred to multiple attacks in language implying they had been confirmed, while the report Reuters attributed to UKMTO concerned only one tanker. The Louise 1 incident remains separate from the unverified Iranian account, both in attribution and level of confirmation. Reuters linked the rise in prices to supply concerns highlighted by the attack, not to confirmation of every incident cited in Iranian claims.
U.S. Energy Information Administration data reflect the supply disruption in previous months. The average spot price of Brent reached $114 a barrel in September, up $23 from August, and the agency linked the increase to a rise in attacks on oil facilities and tankers in the region. In the same month, average crude production outages reached 4.8 million barrels per day, after 5.8 million in August and a peak of 10.9 million in May. The figures indicate that production outages had eased from earlier levels but remained in place in September as the average Brent price rose. The Energy Information Administration used these indicators in its October Short-Term Energy Outlook.
On the diplomatic front, Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on Friday as part of coordinated efforts to reach an agreement between the United States and Iran, Reuters reported. A person familiar with the talks said Washington wants the nuclear issue included from the start of negotiations, while Tehran is demanding that the United States first end its blockade of Iranian ports and lift sanctions on its oil exports. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that oil traders are watching the U.S. midterm elections for the possibility of an escalation in the conflict afterward. The Energy Information Administration’s October report estimated that the average spot price of Brent would reach $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, up $14 from its forecast the previous month, as restrictions on oil flows from the Middle East continued. The Qatari mediators’ return remains the latest dated step in efforts to reach an agreement, while developments in the negotiations and security risks in the Strait remain under scrutiny.