Vista Maintains 2027 Production Target of 185,000 Barrels a Day and Operating Earnings Guidance
Key Facts
Vista Energy reaffirmed its target of producing 185,000 barrels of oil a day in 2027, while maintaining adjusted EBITDA guidance of $3.3 billion, assuming Brent crude at $80 a barrel. Chairman and Chief Executive Miguel Galuccio confirmed the outlook during the third-quarter earnings call on October 29. He said the company was "reinforcing production guidance at 185,000 barrels a day," adding: "Assuming Brent at $80, we reaffirm our guidance of $3.3 billion for next year." The financial and production targets were reaffirmed as the company reported growth in production and revenue in the third quarter. The company distinguishes between its oil production target and estimates of total production measured in barrels of oil equivalent, which are separate metrics.
Total production in the third quarter of 2026 was 169,023 barrels of oil equivalent a day, up 33% year over year and 8% from the second quarter. Oil production alone was 147,126 barrels a day, up 34% year over year and 9% quarter over quarter. The quarterly comparison shows total production rising from 156,061 barrels of oil equivalent a day in the second quarter to its third-quarter level, while oil production increased from 135,427 to 147,126 barrels a day. The company said it expects average annual production of 158,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2026. It also raised its fourth-quarter forecast to about 175,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, from previous guidance of more than 170,000.
Vista posted net revenue of $1,183.9 million in the third quarter, of which $854.2 million came from oil and gas exports, equivalent to 72% of the total. Adjusted EBITDA was $841.5 million, up 78% year over year. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 68%, down 2 percentage points from the second quarter but 1 percentage point higher than in the third quarter of 2025. The company attributed the earnings growth mainly to a 75% increase in total revenue, while operating costs per unit remained stable. Free cash flow was $334.2 million, while net leverage fell to 1.12 times at quarter-end, from 1.83 times at the end of the comparable period in 2025.
The financial guidance is subject to price assumptions. Galuccio said a $1 change in Brent or in the oil price differential changes adjusted EBITDA by between $45 million and $50 million. The company’s average realized crude oil price was $84.2 a barrel in the third quarter, up 30% year over year but down 6% from the second quarter. This puts the $80 Brent assumption used in the 2027 guidance alongside the realized selling price during the quarter, with earnings sensitivity to prices and the differential remaining a defined part of the guidance. The reported total production level of 169,023 barrels of oil equivalent a day does not mean oil production alone reached that level; the company reported it separately from oil production of 147,126 barrels a day. Management confirmed that a full update on 2027 activities and related topics will be presented with fourth-quarter results in February.
On the production growth path, the company said mechanical completion of the VMOS pipeline is scheduled for year-end, with line fill planned for the first quarter of 2027 and commercial operations set to begin in the first half of the year. Vista is considering adding one drilling rig next year, subject to approval under the RIGI program. The possibility ties the decision to add drilling equipment to approval, while the company has included pipeline milestones in its operating plan for next year. Management did not specify in its guidance whether RIGI approval would be granted or how the potential rig would affect production. Details of 2027 activities are due in an update accompanying fourth-quarter results in February.