Venture Global Raises 2026 Earnings Guidance to $9.1 Billion in August
Key Facts
On August 11, Venture Global raised its 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $8.7–9.1 billion, from $8.2–8.5 billion previously, according to its second-quarter earnings release. The figure reflects an update the company announced in August, not a new increase in late October. The revision came as the company raised its estimated liquefaction fees for remaining unsold cargoes, alongside growth in second-quarter revenue, net income and volumes sold. The company also raised the midpoint of its annual shipment guidance and narrowed the range. These details matter because they tie the financial guidance to pricing assumptions and operational execution for the rest of the year.
The company said its guidance assumes fixed liquefaction fees of $12.50–13.50 per million British thermal units for remaining unsold cargoes in 2026. It said the assumption reflects futures prices and recently executed cargo sales. In its first-quarter results, published in May, the assumed fee for unsold cargoes was $9.50–10.50 per million British thermal units, with earnings guidance of $8.2–8.5 billion. The comparison shows that the August update raised the assumed fee range alongside the earnings range. The company said a $1 change per million British thermal units in fixed liquefaction fees affects 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA by $180–210 million. That estimate makes assumed fees a direct factor in the sensitivity of the financial guidance.
Venture Global reported second-quarter revenue of $4.6 billion, up 48% year over year, and net income of $1.3 billion, up 266%. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $2.5 billion, up 79% from the same period. The company attributed the metric's growth mainly to higher LNG sales volumes, particularly from the Plaquemines project, and higher net selling prices after feedgas costs. It exported 127 cargoes and sold 466.4 trillion British thermal units of LNG during the quarter. Volumes sold rose 42% from the second quarter of 2025, an increase of 38 cargoes and 137.2 trillion British thermal units, according to the company.
The company said 91% of available 2026 cargoes were contracted, at a weighted-average liquefaction fee of $5.05 per million British thermal units. For total expected shipments this year, it raised the midpoint and narrowed the range to 500–518 cargoes, compared with a previous range of 494–523 cargoes. The guidance therefore combines contracted cargoes and their weighted fees with unsold cargoes whose assumed fees are based on market and futures prices. In the first quarter, consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $1.4 billion, up 2% year over year; the company said higher sales volumes as Plaquemines ramped up supported the result, partly offset by lower net selling prices after feedgas costs. In the second quarter, the metric's annual growth accelerated to 79%, with volumes and net selling prices continuing to rise, according to the company's explanation.
On execution, Venture Global said it was in the final stages of construction, commissioning and confirmation testing for the first phase of the Plaquemines project ahead of commercial operations. The company set the fourth quarter of 2026 as its target to complete commercial operations for the first phase, while targeting mid-2027 for the second phase. It also targets first LNG production from the CP2 project in the second half of 2027. For the Plaquemines expansion, the company targets a final investment decision in the first half of 2027 and first production in 2029, subject to regulatory approvals. These timelines put the projects' phased execution at the center of monitoring guidance that depends on shipment and production growth.
In the market context, the International Energy Agency said average benchmark gas prices in Europe and Asia in the second quarter reached their highest quarterly levels since 2022. The average European TTF price rose 32% year over year to about $16 per million British thermal units, while spot LNG prices in Asia rose 45% to $17.5. But in its third-quarter report, the agency forecast global LNG trade to remain broadly stable in 2026, with a risk that a delayed recovery in Gulf exports could lead to the first annual decline in supplies since 2012. It estimated that Qatar and the UAE's exports fell by 35 billion cubic meters between March and June year over year, while LNG production outside the Gulf grew about 18% and global production fell 4%. It also forecast global gas demand to decline about 0.5%, or 20 billion cubic meters, in 2026, the third annual drop in the decade after 2020 and 2022; it expected new projects in North America, Africa and Australia to add about 50 billion cubic meters to supply, alongside more than 10 billion from existing projects.
Venture Global shares closed at $14.35 on October 28, after closing at $13.81 on October 27 and $13.76 on October 26, according to EL7 data. The cited closing data do not include the session high or low. The company announced on October 1 a 20-year sale and purchase agreement with ConocoPhillips to supply 1 million tonnes of LNG annually, with deliveries to begin in 2030. Venture Global is scheduled to report third-quarter results before the market opens on November 10, 2026. The company said its call with investors and analysts will begin at 9 a.m. Eastern Time that day.