TotalEnergies Expects LNG Selling Price to Top $14 in Fourth Quarter
Key Facts
TotalEnergies expects its average liquefied natural gas selling price to exceed $14 per million British thermal units in the fourth quarter of 2026, citing movements in oil and gas prices in recent months and the lag before they feed through to pricing formulas. In its quarterly results, the company said European gas futures continued to trend higher amid expectations for winter demand and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The price guidance came as total LNG sales reached 9.8 million tons in the third quarter, down 9% from the previous quarter. The figures show a divergence between expectations for higher prices and a quarterly decline in sales volumes. The company’s board met on October 28, 2026, to approve the third-quarter financial results.
Total LNG sales were 9.8 million tons, compared with 10.7 million tons in the second quarter and 10.4 million tons in the third quarter of 2025. Sales from the company’s own production and production shares, along with purchases from third parties, came to 9.4 million tons, down 4% from 9.8 million tons in the second quarter. For the first nine months of 2026, this measure rose to 30.1 million tons from 28 million tons in the corresponding period of 2025, an increase of 8%. The figures distinguish a quarterly decline in total sales from year-on-year growth in sales from production and purchases over the nine-month period. The increase in cumulative sales through September did not prevent a decline in total volume recorded in the third quarter.
By contrast, adjusted net operating income for the integrated LNG segment rose to $1.9 billion in the third quarter, while the segment’s cash flow was $1.7 billion. TotalEnergies attributed the sharp quarterly increase to a 20% rise in average LNG prices, alongside strong performance in LNG and gas trading in a rising market. The company said the segment benefited from “a 20% increase in the average LNG price” and outperformance in trading activities. At group level, adjusted net income was $9.1 billion, up 51% from $6 billion in the second quarter. Cash flow from operations excluding working capital also reached $12.3 billion, up 25% from $9.8 billion.
Oil and gas production was 2.474 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the third quarter, an increase of more than 3% from the previous quarter. The company said the average impact related to the conflict in the Middle East was limited to about 5% of its total production during the quarter, with output benefiting as that impact eased. For the fourth quarter, TotalEnergies expects production growth of more than 3% compared with the same period of 2025, excluding the impact of the conflict. It estimated that the conflict’s impact on total production would be less than 5% in the fourth quarter and mainly relate to limited LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz. The estimate sets bounds on the expected impact of regional disruption on the company’s output as markets anticipate seasonal gas demand.
At the market level, the International Energy Agency said disruption to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz affected routes that accounted for about 20% of global LNG supplies and caused sharp price fluctuations. In the second quarter of 2026, the average price of the European gas benchmark TTF was about $16 per million British thermal units, up 32% year on year. The average Asian spot LNG price was $17.5 per unit, up 45% year on year. The agency expects global LNG trade to remain largely stable during 2026, but warned that a delayed recovery in Gulf exports could lead to the first annual decline in supply since 2012. These estimates place TotalEnergies’ fourth-quarter selling-price outlook in a market shaped by winter demand and supply disruptions.