TotalEnergies’ Cash Flow Could Exceed $42 Billion in 2026
Key Facts
TotalEnergies expects its annual cash flow to exceed $42 billion in 2026, with the possibility of reaching $43 billion, Reuters reported, citing Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanné on October 29. The estimate follows operating cash flow before working capital effects of $12.3 billion in the third quarter, up 25% from the previous quarter. The company said the strength of its results was linked to higher energy prices, refining margins and gas trading performance. The cash outlook gives the company greater scope to return capital to shareholders, as its board approved specific buybacks for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. The company’s shares closed at $94.03 on October 29, while rising 1.61% to $94.37 in premarket trading, approaching their 52-week high of $94.65.
Pouyanné said higher energy prices, record refining margins and strong gas trading supported the cash outlook. He pointed to the possibility of considering an additional dividend to meet the company’s commitment to return 40% of cash flow to shareholders. He did not announce a dividend as scheduled, but linked it to the possibility that higher cash flow could increase returns to investors. The company had announced ordinary dividends of $8.6 billion, alongside $8 billion in share buybacks during 2026, according to Reuters. The announced distribution framework thus combines regular dividends and buybacks, while any additional payment remains under consideration.
The board authorized share buybacks worth $2.5 billion for the fourth quarter of 2026, and a further amount of the same value for the first quarter of 2027, according to a company statement. The approval sets out two separate quarterly tranches and does not describe a permanent program extending through the end of the first quarter of 2027. The amount authorized for the fourth quarter is part of the total buybacks announced for the year, while the first-quarter 2027 approval adds a new tranche of the same value. Pouyanné linked the possibility of considering an additional dividend to higher cash flow and the commitment to return 40% of it to shareholders. Any additional dividend is expected to be addressed in February 2027, Reuters reported, citing the possibility of discussing it then.
At the operating level, hydrocarbon production reached 2.47 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the third quarter. The company said production would have risen by more than 4% year on year if the impact of the conflict in the Middle East were excluded. In refining and chemicals, adjusted net operating income was $3.6 billion, while cash flow reached $3.9 billion. Company officials described the segment’s results as record-setting, amid strong refining margins that the chief executive cited among the factors supporting the cash outlook. Working capital also contributed positively by $3.1 billion during the quarter, according to the chief financial officer, partly driven by higher tax liabilities and amounts owed to suppliers.
For the fourth quarter, TotalEnergies expects average liquefied natural gas selling prices to remain above $14 per million British thermal units, with gas trading remaining strong. It also forecast upstream production growth of more than 3% year on year, excluding the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. These operating forecasts provide context for the annual cash flow estimate, but apply to the fourth quarter and do not extend the announced outlook into 2027. The decision to consider an additional dividend is tied to Pouyanné’s comments on cash flow and the commitment to return 40% of it to shareholders. He said an additional dividend could be an option to meet that commitment: "I will consider an additional dividend to meet the commitment to return 40% of that to shareholders."