Silver Falls 5.8% to $49.34 an Ounce as Rate-Hike Bets Build
Key Facts
Spot silver fell 5.8% to $49.34 an ounce on October 30, its lowest level since November 2025, according to Reuters in a report published via MarketScreener. The decline came as inflation concerns mounted and energy prices rose, after U.S. data showed prices accelerated in September. Reuters said the data strengthened economists’ expectations of a rate increase in December, adding pressure on non-yielding precious metals. EL7’s daily data showed silver SIUSD closed at $49.3, compared with $52.38 on October 29. XAGUSD on EL7 also closed at $49.08, after $52.002 the previous day.
The close below $50 reflects the trading level recorded in EL7’s data at the end of the October 30 session, while Reuters reported a spot price of $49.34 an ounce. The figures differ because the former shows daily closes for two instruments, while Reuters reported a spot price during trading. Silver had closed at $52.38 the previous day according to SIUSD, and at $52.002 according to XAGUSD. Reuters put the daily decline at 5.8%, with the price reaching its lowest level since November 2025. These figures place the session’s move in the context of a marked fall from the previous day’s levels, without making EL7’s close alone evidence of when the price low was recorded.
On inflation, the U.S. gasoline index rose 9.1% in September and accounted for more than half of the monthly increase in the overall price index, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Reuters linked accelerating inflation to what consumers paid for gasoline and other goods, and said the data supported economists’ expectations of a rate increase in December. Energy prices added to concerns about persistent price pressures as attention turns to the path of monetary policy. Fuel is significant in interpreting the month’s data because its increase drove more than half of the monthly rise in overall prices. Against this backdrop, pressure on silver coincided with concerns about higher inflation and interest rates remaining elevated for longer.
U.S. growth data show real gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026, compared with 2.2% in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Growth came from increases in investment and consumer and government spending, partly offset by a decline in exports. That put third-quarter economic expansion at a faster pace than in the previous quarter, as markets assessed the effect of inflation on Federal Reserve decisions. In its October 28 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee said “economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace” and “inflation remains elevated.” The committee’s description combines continued strong activity with inflation remaining high, both factors in the debate over the timing of rate cuts or the possibility of a rate increase.
Metals analyst Peter Grant said in comments reported by Reuters that inflation concerns had pushed central banks toward a more hawkish stance, and that the “higher for longer” rate outlook was weighing on precious metals. This view puts silver’s decline among markets’ responses to monetary-policy expectations, alongside the effect of rising energy prices on inflation. Reuters had linked the U.S. data to stronger economists’ bets on a rate increase in December, not to a rate decision already announced by the Federal Reserve. This follows the committee’s decision to leave the rate range unchanged at its latest meeting, according to its October 28 statement. December expectations therefore remain tied to upcoming economic data and the committee’s decision at its scheduled meeting.
The latest decline follows silver’s exceptional rise during 2025, according to a survey by the Silver Institute. The price began that year below $29 an ounce, then reached a peak of $84 in December, while the annual average price rose 42% from 2024 to slightly more than $40. The survey also estimated the silver market deficit in 2025 at 40.3 million ounces, the fifth consecutive annual deficit. These figures provide context for the metal’s price swings and physical-market balance, without explaining the October session’s fall on their own. In forecasts reported by Investing.com from Metals Focus, the physical silver market could shift from a deficit of 35.4 million ounces in 2026 to a surplus of 37.3 million ounces in 2027.
The same forecasts project industrial demand for silver will fall from 640.2 million ounces in 2026 to 618.2 million in 2027, according to Metals Focus as reported by Investing.com. Upcoming U.S. milestones markets may track include the release of the October Consumer Price Index on November 10, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The next estimate of third-quarter GDP is scheduled for November 25, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve’s next meeting is scheduled for December 8 and 9, according to the Federal Open Market Committee calendar. These dates follow the decision to hold rates on October 28 and provide price and growth data ahead of the meeting for markets to monitor.