ProSiebenSat.1 Cuts 2026 Organic Revenue Outlook to Slight Decline
Key Facts
On October 29, ProSiebenSat.1 revised its 2026 organic revenue outlook from slight growth to a slight decline, while keeping its forecasts for the other key financial indicators unchanged. This means the company no longer expects organic revenue to return to growth this year, after forecasting in March that it would recover following a decline in 2025. The group said a weak economic environment and continued subdued demand in the TV advertising market weighed on revenue. It maintained its forecast for a significant increase in full-year EBITDA compared with 2025. The revision highlights the contrast between declining revenue and the improved profitability the company recorded in the first nine months.
The group's revenue was 2,244 million euros in the first nine months of 2026, down 11%, or 271 million euros, from the year-earlier period. Excluding currency effects and changes in the business portfolio, the decline narrowed to 3%, equivalent to 63 million euros. The gap between the two rates reflects the impact of currency and portfolio changes on reported revenue, while the organic measure shows the comparable decline in business activity. The company had reported an organic decline of 2% in both the second quarter and the first half of the year, amid difficult economic conditions and a challenging advertising market. The organic decline therefore widened to 3% in the first nine months, compared with the first-half level.
In the entertainment segment, external revenue fell 6% in the first half of 2026, following an 8% decline in the first quarter, while advertising revenue dropped 9% year on year. The company said demand in the TV advertising market remained “persistently subdued,” linking this to difficult economic conditions. Weak private consumption, which the company cited in the context of its revised outlook, weighed on advertising activity alongside subdued direct demand in the television market. Not all of the group's businesses moved in the same direction; flaconi continued its dynamic growth trajectory. Reported revenue was also affected by the sale of companies and assets during the period, partly explaining why the reported decline was wider than the organic fall.
On earnings, EBITDA rose by 159 million euros to 198 million euros in the first nine months. EBIT returned to positive territory at 67 million euros, an increase of 175 million euros. The company linked lower programming expenses to improved profitability, with expenses falling by 126 million euros to 588 million euros during the period. It attributed this mainly to a change in the depreciation method announced in the first half, alongside more efficient use of content across platforms and the effect of its earlier restructuring program. The figures show improved operating results during a period of declining organic revenue, while the full-year EBITDA outlook remained in place.
The group expects EBITDA in 2026 to rise significantly compared with 241 million euros in 2025, while forecasting a moderate decline in reported revenue from the previous year's 3,675 million euros. These forecasts distinguish between organic revenue, which has shifted to a slight decline, and reported revenue, which the company expects to fall moderately year on year. Interim CFO Bob Ragan said: “We have clearly improved our profitability, kept our leverage ratio within the target range, and are on track to achieve our forecast for EBITDA growth in 2026.” He added that the market remained difficult and was weighing on revenue. The company did not announce a change to its forecasts for the other key indicators.
ProSiebenSat.1 had forecast a return to slight organic revenue growth in 2026 in March, after a decline in 2025. But the first-half figures showed an organic decline of 2% in both the second quarter and the period as a whole, with entertainment advertising down 9% in the first half. The October revision reflected continued weak demand in the TV advertising market amid a difficult economic environment, while some businesses, including flaconi, remained on a growth trajectory. The reported nine-month results provide an initial indication of the gap between revenue and profitability, while the company continues to expect full-year EBITDA to rise. The group said the published figures were preliminary and subject to internal verification.
The company is scheduled to publish its third-quarter and nine-month 2026 results on November 12, 2026. The detailed results will provide final figures for the period the group has currently reported on a preliminary basis. The publication date comes less than two weeks after the revision to its organic revenue outlook and the announcement of higher EBITDA and EBIT's return to positive territory. The company's announced 2026 outlook remains for a significant increase in EBITDA and a moderate decline in reported revenue, alongside the expected slight decline in organic revenue. The group said its leverage ratio remained within the target range, with no announced change to its forecasts for the other key indicators.