Poland’s annual inflation slows to 3.5% in October, below expectations
Key Facts
Poland’s annual inflation slowed to 3.5% in October 2026, from 4.1% in September, according to preliminary estimates reported by Trading Economics. The reading came in below the calendar forecast of 4.2%, marking a decline from both the previous month and the expected level. The flash estimate for October was included in Statistics Poland’s calendar of releases for 30 October 2026. The data show price developments ahead of the next monetary policy meeting in November. But the preliminary estimate does not change the fact that annual inflation remained at 3.5%; the available information does not establish that it is below the central bank’s target.
Trading Economics attributed the slowdown mainly to a 0.1% decline in food and non-alcoholic beverage prices in October. In the opposite direction, prices for fuels and lubricants used in private transport rose 21.7%. Electricity, gas and other fuel prices also increased 6.0%. These movements show a divergence between a food component that recorded a decline and transport- and energy-related components that posted increases. The report said food and non-alcoholic beverage prices “fell by 0.1%,” while noting higher fuel and energy prices.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.4% in October, after rising 0.7% in September. The report described the decline as the first after three consecutive months of increases. This offers a different comparison from the annual inflation rate: the former measures price changes over one month, while the annual rate compares October with the same period a year earlier. The report said consumer prices “fell 0.4% in October, reversing a 0.7% increase in September.” It added that this was the first monthly decline after “three consecutive months of increases.”
On monetary policy, mBank said the Monetary Policy Council left interest rates unchanged, but cited signs that the council was prepared to raise them by 25 basis points before the end of the year. The bank’s analysis also linked its forecast to the CPN programme, which the government reinstated through the end of the year after the president signed a law imposing a windfall profits tax on fuel companies. The programme cuts value-added tax and excise duty on fuel, and mBank estimated its cost to the budget at 5.3 billion zlotys, to be financed by the windfall profits tax on fuel companies. The bank said the programme was contributing to a decline in inflation to about 3.5% in October. The analysis said the council “is preparing to raise interest rates by 25 basis points before the end of the year.”
Trading Economics’ calendar lists Poland’s next interest-rate decision on 4 November 2026, with a forecast of 3.75% and a previous rate of 3.75%. These are forecasts listed in the calendar, not a general forecast attributed to the market. By contrast, mBank forecast three rate increases of 25 basis points each, with one starting in November, followed by two in January and March. The bank also said inflation would remain above the National Bank of Poland’s target throughout 2027. The November meeting will put these forecasts before the council’s next decision, following October’s preliminary reading, which showed annual inflation slowing and prices declining month on month. The expected increases and the inflation outlook remain forecasts issued by mBank.