Mondelez Expects Strong EPS Growth in 2027 With Cocoa Surplus of 500,000 Tons
Key Facts
Mondelez said it is confident it will deliver strong earnings-per-share growth in 2027, without setting a target rate, in guidance given by its chief financial officer on October 29, 2026. The comments followed the company’s report of adjusted earnings of 78 cents a share for the quarter ended September 30, beating the 71-cent average analyst estimate. Quarterly revenue was $9.97 billion, slightly below the $9.98 billion average estimate, according to data compiled by London Stock Exchange Group and cited by Reuters. The stock rose 3% in extended trading on October 29 after the results, as lower raw-material costs helped earnings beat estimates. The CFO said the company has “many tools to drive earnings growth” into 2027, adding that the outlook does not depend on a single factor.
Those tools include productivity programs that management said it will accelerate next year to address inflation in dairy, oils and packaging costs. Management also linked expected earnings growth to volume-led growth, stability in Europe and continued momentum in the United States, alongside improved productivity. The mix reflects the outlook’s reliance on multiple operational factors, while costs for some inputs continue to weigh on the company. In Europe, Mondelez cut some chocolate product prices, and Reuters said it was beginning to see sales volumes recover as consumers returned to the category. The move provides context for the company’s effort to balance prices and volumes as raw-material costs change.
In the cocoa market, Mondelez expects a record surplus of about 500,000 tons in the 2025–2026 cycle, and the CFO said that would leave market inventories at healthy levels. But management estimates point to the possibility of the market shifting to a deficit of about 190,000 tons in the 2026–2027 cycle. The company attributed that possibility to a weak start to the main crop in Ivory Coast and Ghana, and expectations of a strong El Niño. Management believes the current cycle’s surplus can cover the potential deficit in the next cycle, easing the effect of the shift between the two estimates on supplies. The CFO said industry stock coverage stands at about 9 months, and that market conditions differ from the 2024 crisis.
The company is also betting on expanding its reach in China, India and Brazil, where management said it has 25% distribution headroom in numeric distribution. It said expansion could come through adding points of sale and increasing the range of products offered in stores. Management listed the opportunity in these three markets among the growth drivers it cited, alongside momentum in the United States and stability in Europe. The outlook for EPS growth in 2027 remained qualitative, with no numerical rate disclosed in the comments cited by Investing.com. This comes as the company tracks improving chocolate volumes in Europe and developments in the cocoa supply-and-demand balance in the 2026–2027 cycle.