Mexico’s GDP grows 3.2% annually in third quarter, fastest pace since 2023
Key Facts
Mexico’s gross domestic product grew 3.2% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, its fastest pace since the same period in 2023, La Jornada reported. The quarterly reading showed the economy expanding 0.9% from the previous quarter, exceeding market expectations of 0.7%, according to data reported by Trading Economics. But quarterly growth slowed from 1.4% in the second quarter. The figures place activity between an improvement that exceeded expectations and a continued loss of some momentum compared with the previous quarter. They also bring back into focus the gap between strong annual growth and uneven performance across economic sectors.
Sector contributions were mixed in the third quarter, both year on year and quarter on quarter. On an annual basis, primary activities rose 1.8%, while secondary activities grew 3.2% and tertiary activities increased 3.3%, El Cronista reported. Tertiary activities include trade and services, which recorded annual growth roughly matching the overall rate for secondary activities. On a quarterly basis, primary activities fell 0.4%, while industrial activities rose 0.8%. Trade and services posted quarterly growth of 1.1%, the strongest among the groups cited in the quarterly reading reported by La Jornada.
The reading follows a strong quarterly rebound in the second quarter, when the economy grew 1.4% from the previous three months, Reuters reported via Investing.com. That was a recovery from a revised contraction of 0.3% in the first quarter. Still, second-quarter growth came in slightly below the National Institute of Statistics and Geography’s initial estimate of 1.5%. This sequence means third-quarter growth, despite exceeding expectations, did not sustain the pace of expansion recorded in the second quarter. The comparison between quarters provides context for the annual improvement, as the figures reflect a volatile quarterly trajectory during 2026.
According to the original, non-seasonally adjusted figures reported by La Jornada, the economy grew about 1.8% cumulatively in the first nine months of 2026. That compares with cumulative growth of just 0.1% in the corresponding period of 2025. The gap shows a clear improvement in performance through the end of the third quarter compared with the previous year. But it comes as full-year growth estimates remain below the annual increase recorded in the third quarter. The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development expect Mexico’s economy to grow 1.5% in 2026. Mexico’s Finance Ministry projects a range of 1% to 2% for the same year.
Attention now turns to the Bank of Mexico’s monetary policy decision on 5 November 2026, the date listed on the bank’s calendar. The GDP data come ahead of that announcement, following quarterly growth that exceeded market expectations but was slower than in the previous quarter. The sectoral divergence gives policymakers a picture combining growth in trade, services and industry with a decline in primary activities during the quarter. Annual estimates from international institutions put growth at 1.5%, while the Finance Ministry’s estimate ranges from 1% to 2%. The available material does not include a documented forecast for the interest rate the bank will set at its next meeting.