Italy’s GDP Stagnates in Third Quarter, Missing Growth Forecasts
Key Facts
Italy’s gross domestic product was unchanged in the third quarter of 2026, missing expectations for quarterly growth of 0.1%, while expanding 0.8% year on year, compared with Reuters’ forecast of 0.9%. Data reported by Reuters via Marketscreener showed a divergence between continued annual growth and a quarterly standstill. The reading followed economic growth of 0.6% in 2025, according to Reuters. A Reuters poll of 28 economists had forecast modest quarterly growth in the third quarter. The carry-over growth rate stood at 0.8% at the end of the quarter, meaning that if output remains flat in the final quarter, full-year growth would remain at 0.8% compared with 2025.
On prices, Italy’s consumer price index rose 4.2% year on year in September, up from 3.3% in August, and increased 0.7% month on month, according to final data from Italy’s statistics institute, Istat. The final reading confirmed the month’s preliminary estimate, the institute said. Istat attributed the acceleration in inflation to regulated and non-regulated energy and unprocessed food. Annual inflation in regulated energy rose to 25.8% in September from 18.6% in August, while non-regulated energy climbed to 22.5% from 17.0%. Unprocessed food inflation also accelerated to 5.5% from 3.8%, with price pressures spread across energy and food categories.
By contrast, inflation measures excluding energy remained below the headline rate. Core inflation, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, was 1.6% in September, compared with 1.5% in August, according to Istat. Inflation excluding energy reached 2.0%, up from 1.7% in the previous month. The figures show limited increases in both core measures alongside a larger jump in energy and unprocessed food components. Istat’s preliminary estimate for September had put the index at 4.2% year on year and 0.7% month on month, before the final bulletin confirmed the same figures. Comparing the headline index with measures excluding energy provides a view of the breadth of price pressures in September.
Istat had listed 30 October 2026 at 11 a.m. as the release date for preliminary October consumer price data, according to its annual calendar. But the official release page available during the review still showed September data and listed 30 October as the date of the next release. The confirmed data presented here therefore do not include an October reading for Italian inflation or details of its components. Istat’s calendar set 17 November as the publication date for the final October consumer price reading. For the euro area, the European Central Bank set 4 November as the date for the preliminary estimate of the seasonally adjusted harmonised consumer price index for October.