Asia’s LNG imports poised to reach 23.31 million tons in October
Key Facts
Asia’s liquefied natural gas imports are on track to reach 23.31 million tons in October 2026, their highest monthly total since July, as the spot price for delivery to North Asia reached $29.30 per million British thermal units in the week ended October 16. Reuters reported that the price hit its highest level since December 2023, approaching three times the $10.40 recorded in late February, before the conflict with Iran began. Forecasts indicate that the increase in Asian shipments is coinciding with a costly spot market, putting prices and supply volumes at the forefront of gas importers’ attention. Kpler analysts forecast Chinese shipments of 5.47 million tons in October, compared with 5.20 million tons in September. The figures show that the expected rise in imports does not mean prices have returned to pre-disruption levels.
According to its third-quarter 2026 gas market report, the International Energy Agency said LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted after the war broke out in late February. Before then, the strait carried nearly 20% of global LNG supplies, making the disruption to shipping a central factor in price volatility. The agency said spot prices in Asia and Europe recorded their highest monthly averages since January 2023 during March. Prices then fell in the second quarter of 2026, but remained far above 2025 levels. In a separate estimate reported by Reuters on October 12, European benchmark gas prices had risen by more than 150% in 2026 through that date, as shipping disruptions through the strait trapped nearly 20% of global LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE. This contributed to increased competition for spot cargoes, Reuters reported.
October’s Asian data stand out in a market where prices and import volumes have moved in different directions. The forecast of 23.31 million tons puts regional imports at their highest level since July, when they reached 23.38 million tons, slightly above the October total. In China, the expected 5.47 million tons of shipments in October compares with imports of 5.20 million tons in September. But the North Asian spot price, according to Reuters, reached $29.30 in the week ended October 16, compared with $10.40 in late February. The latest level is about three times the pre-conflict price and marks the highest reading since December 2023. These comparisons bring together expectations for higher Asian import flows and a spot purchase price that remains high relative to the start of the year.
The International Energy Agency expects global gas demand to contract by about 0.5% in 2026, or the equivalent of 20 billion cubic meters, with Asian demand declining at the same pace. In Europe, the agency forecasts demand to fall by more than 2% during the year, saying higher gas prices are likely to reduce consumption. In Asia, higher prices could prompt a switch to coal, according to the agency’s report. This forecast places October’s growth in Asian imports within an annual outlook in which the agency expects regional demand to contract, while price pressures that could affect fuel choices persist. The comparison periods differ: one is an annual demand estimate, while the other is a forecast for October shipments.
On the supply side, the International Energy Agency expects global LNG trade to remain broadly stable year on year in 2026. But it warned that any delay in restoring Gulf exports could lead to the first annual decline in global supply since 2012. The warning links the supply outlook to the timing of the region’s export recovery, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point for price volatility. The expected Asian shipments in October take on significance in this context, as the agency indicates that total global trade may remain close to its previous annual level. The agency’s forecasts do not give a specific date for the recovery of Gulf exports; they identify delays in restoring them as a risk to total supply in 2026.