Kallas: Grain prices at their highest since 2023 as Black Sea shipping faces threat
Key Facts
European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned that Russia's activities in the Black Sea are making it harder for people around the world to access food, and said global grain prices had reached their highest level since 2023. She made the remarks at a G20 foreign ministers' meeting in Atlanta, where she outlined concerns over Ukrainian ports, agricultural infrastructure and civilian shipping. Kallas's comments put food supply security at the heart of a diplomatic debate unfolding as grain prices rise. She did not attribute the price move to a single factor, but linked her warning to the widening impact of Russian activities on food flows. Divisions within the group over the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are also deepening, threatening the prospects of tangible progress at the meeting, Reuters reported.
Data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization show that its food price index stood at 136.0 points in September 2026, up 1.5% from August and 5.8% from September 2025. The grain index rose faster, gaining 5.1% from the previous month to an average 17.2% above its level a year earlier. Global wheat prices also increased 6.3% in September. The organization attributed the rise to logistical constraints in the Black Sea and drought in parts of North America. The figures provide an economic backdrop to Kallas's warning, as disruption to shipping routes coincides with higher prices for key food commodities.
The organization's chief economist, Máximo Torero, said disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea, alongside climate shocks, were putting pressure on energy, transport and key food commodities. He added that if these pressures persist, their effects will feed through to consumer food prices, particularly in countries that rely on food and energy imports. According to the organization, elevated shipping costs, firmer fertilizer markets and ongoing logistical disruptions are also adding to market uncertainty. The combination of these factors means the burden of transport disruption is not limited to exporters or shipping companies, but could extend to food costs in importing markets. Torero said: "If these pressures persist, they will soon be transmitted to consumer food prices."
The organization forecast that global grain trade would fall 3.5% in the 2026/27 season from the record level recorded in 2025/26, to 505.8 million tonnes. It also projected a steeper-than-previously-expected decline in wheat and corn exports, citing restrictions on Black Sea shipping routes and insufficient alternative transport options. The outlook matters for importing countries that depend on regular grain flows, as the lack of alternatives limits the market's ability to make up for route disruptions. In the wider Middle East region, the importance of Ukrainian grain exports stands out in the context of reliance on external supplies, making maritime security part of the food security debate. Meanwhile, the Sea of Azov has seen limited signs of grain ships resuming departures, under temporary permits that expire on 15 November, according to related news options.
The atmosphere at the Atlanta meeting reflects wider political divisions surrounding shipping and supplies. Reuters reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attended the meeting, while South Africa's minister was absent after the United States, which holds the group's rotating presidency this year, did not invite him. The agency quoted a U.S. State Department official as saying that four ministerial meetings of the group this year had achieved a degree of consensus, but that further work remained before the leaders' summit in Miami. The summit is scheduled for 14–16 December 2026. This leaves the issues of war and food security on a negotiating track that has yet to reach final agreement ahead of the leaders' meeting.