EL7.AI
Central Banks•30 October 2026•
3 min read

European Central Bank Lists Survey of Professional Forecasters for Oct. 30 at 10:00

Key Facts

1The bank listed the survey release for Oct. 30, 2026, at 10:00 Central European Time.
2The survey began in January 1999 and is conducted four times a year.
3In the third quarter, inflation expectations were 2.7% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027 and 2.0% for 2028.
4GDP growth expectations were 0.6% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027 and 1.3% in 2028, with the 2026 estimate cut by 0.4 percentage point.
5The next survey release is tentatively scheduled for Feb. 5, 2027.

The European Central Bank listed the results of its Survey of Professional Forecasters on its agenda for Friday, Oct. 30, 2026, at 10:00 Central European Time, according to its official calendar. The survey compiles expectations for inflation, real gross domestic product growth and unemployment in the euro zone across multiple time horizons. But the available release page does not show fourth-quarter results, so the inflation, growth or unemployment estimates in the previous draft cannot be confirmed. Nor is it appropriate to link the survey to an interest rate or separate inflation data that were not included in the available survey results. The confirmed news remains the release time and the indicators it covers, not a new numerical path for those indicators.

The survey dates back to January 1999, making it a long-running tool for tracking expectations for the euro zone economy, according to the European Central Bank. It is conducted four times a year, in January, April, July and October, with aggregated results and detailed data published at the same frequency. The bank asks participants to provide point forecasts and probability distributions for headline and core annual inflation, as well as real gross domestic product growth and unemployment. This structure allows experts' estimates to be tracked across more than one time horizon, capturing a range of probabilities rather than only a central value. The survey therefore offers an indicator of participants' views of the economy, while in itself representing no monetary policy decision.

The latest documented numerical comparison in the available evidence is from the third-quarter release published on July 24, 2026. In that survey, participants expected headline inflation of 2.7% in 2026, then 2.2% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028, according to the bank's report. Compared with the second quarter, the 2027 estimate was raised by 0.1 percentage point, while the estimates for 2026 and 2028 were unchanged. The report said about 65% of participants expected long-term inflation to be exactly 2.0%, up from about 55% in the previous round. These figures show the direction of third-quarter expectations and should not be attributed to the fourth-quarter release, for which figures are not available here.

For growth, the third-quarter release put real gross domestic product growth expectations at 0.6% for 2026, 1.2% for 2027 and 1.3% for 2028. The 2026 estimate was cut by 0.4 percentage point compared with the previous survey, according to European Central Bank data. The report also recorded that the most common expectation for the deposit facility rate rose to 2.50% for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. These estimates belong to the third-quarter round and do not establish what participants expected in the October survey. The official survey page says the next release is tentatively scheduled for Feb. 5, 2027.