EL7.AI
Macro EconomyMedium•30 October 2026•
1 min read

Canada GDP Stagnates in August as Advance Estimates Point to September Contraction

Key Facts

1Canada's real GDP recorded 0.0% growth in August, missing the 0.2% growth estimate.
2Advance estimates for September suggest a potential 0.1% contraction in GDP.
3Oil and gas extraction fell 1.2% in August, marking its third consecutive monthly decline.

Canada's real GDP recorded 0.0% growth in August, missing the 0.2% growth estimate. Statistics Canada reported that the stagnation was driven by a 1.2% decline in oil and gas extraction, marking its third consecutive monthly drop, alongside a 1.4% decrease in wholesale trade.

Advance estimates for September suggest a potential 0.1% contraction, indicating a loss of economic momentum heading into the end of the third quarter. While retail trade rebounded by 1.2%, a 0.1% decline in services-producing industries and a 5.8% drop in motor vehicle production weighed on the overall performance. These figures follow the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision on October 28, 2026, which set rates at 2.5%.

Market participants are looking ahead to the Manufacturing PMI release on November 2, 2026, with forecasts pointing to a level of 51. Additionally, Canada's Balance of Trade data is scheduled for release on November 4, 2026, with an expected surplus of 4 billion.