Brent 2026 forecast rises to $92.88 as Middle East supply disrupted
Key Facts
A Reuters poll conducted in October raised its average forecast for Brent crude in 2026 to $92.88 a barrel, compared with $89.05 in the September poll. The poll covered 32 economists and analysts, and its revision came as concerns grew over oil flows from the Middle East. In futures trading, December Brent rose 2.5% to $117.75 a barrel on October 30, after touching $118. Prices were on track for a fourth consecutive monthly gain, of about 13% in October. EL7 data showed Brent closing at $113.53 that day, a separate reading from the December contract price reported in Reuters trading.
UniCredit analyst Tobias Keller attributed the continuing pressure to restrictions on Middle East flows, tight oil product markets and inventory drawdowns. He said these factors meant a full return to prewar production levels, trade routes and shipping patterns “will take longer.” These risks reflect the difficulty of restoring supplies even if the disruption eases, since the issue involves shipping and trade as well as production. On October 30, a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was attacked by explosive devices attached by a small boat, according to Reuters. The report described the attack as the first known successful sticky-mine attack in the passage since the war began in February.
Brent prices peaked at $126.41 a barrel in April, after the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran broke out in late February, according to Reuters. The conflict put the Strait of Hormuz at the center of supply concerns; before the war, the passage carried about one-fifth of global energy supplies. The report said October was the worst month for attacks on commercial shipping in the strait and neighboring waterways since maritime security incidents began to be tracked in 2017. This context heightens the sensitivity of price forecasts to any disruption affecting tanker movements and Gulf flows. The increase in the October poll’s average annual Brent forecast came as these risks persisted.
But demand forecasts point in the opposite direction from supply pressures. The Reuters poll forecast oil demand to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, then grow by about 2.2 million barrels per day in 2027. The International Energy Agency forecast global demand to decline by an average of 2.6 million barrels per day during 2026, with a partial recovery of 2 million barrels per day in 2027. Even so, global consumption in 2027 would remain 620,000 barrels per day, or 0.6%, below its 2025 level. These estimates show market forecasts combining near-term supply tightness with weak demand during the year, before an expected partial recovery later.
Inventory data reflect the scale of the drawdown from the market since the conflict escalated. The International Energy Agency said observed global inventories at the end of September were 509 million barrels below their level at the end of February. OECD countries’ inventories also fell by 37 million barrels during September. The Reuters poll forecast an oil market deficit of about 2.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026. For 2027, participants forecast an average surplus of about 290,000 barrels per day if Gulf flows improve. The trajectory of those flows will be a decisive factor in the shift from a near-term deficit to the expected surplus.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for the average spot price of Brent in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $105 a barrel, up $14 from the previous month’s forecast. The agency expects most regional production to return to its pre-conflict average by the end of the second quarter of 2027. On that basis, it expects Brent to average $87 a barrel in that quarter, then $74 in the fourth quarter of 2027. These estimates differ from the Reuters poll’s average forecast for the full year because they cover quarterly averages and use different timing assumptions. Markets are watching an online meeting on Sunday of members from seven key OPEC+ countries, with December production targets expected to remain unchanged; OPEC has also set November 1, 2026, for the seven countries’ next meeting to review market conditions.