Bitcoin Options With a Notional Value of $10.86 Billion Expire on Deribit at 08:00 UTC
Key Facts
Bitcoin options on Deribit expired at 08:00 UTC on Friday, October 30, with a notional value of $10.86 billion, according to a report published by CoinDesk the previous day. The expiry also included Ethereum options with a notional value of $783 million. Ahead of settlement, most open interest was in Bitcoin call options with strike prices between $90,000 and $100,000, bets the report said had become out of the money at the prevailing price. The large volume alone was therefore not a bullish signal, as it coincided with higher pricing for downside protection. Notional value describes the size of the contracts, while Deribit's mechanism determines the final delivery price based on the index average during the settlement period.
The report said open interest was concentrated in calls at strike levels far from the traded price, after buyers bet on a sharp rally that did not materialize. It said these options had become out of the money, or were at a loss, ahead of expiry. This picture differs from reading the put-to-call ratio in isolation; the ratio alone is insufficient to establish that the greater value or directional exposure lies on one side. In a pricing assessment, a Deribit official said Bitcoin's break below $80,000 pushed short-term options skew in favor of puts. The gap reached more than 10 volatility points above calls, according to the report published on October 29.
Volatility measures showed that the options market priced in larger moves than the price had actually recorded recently. Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index stood at 36 on October 29, compared with realized volatility of 31 over the same period. A Deribit official said the positive variance risk premium reflects options pricing for large moves compared with recently realized volatility. The report said that “this positive variance risk premium indicates that options are pricing in large moves compared with the limited volatility realized recently.” This reading places the expected volatility index above the measure of historical price movement, without indicating the expected direction of the move.
Bitcoin closed at $77,991.89 on October 29 and at $77,786.09 on October 30, according to EL7 data. On the day before expiry, Reuters reported that it traded near $80,000 after the Federal Reserve held interest rates, down 1.51% over the previous 24 hours at that point. Reuters quoted an analyst at Delta Exchange as saying that the rally following the Fed decision had faded after the price met resistance in the $81,500 to $82,000 range and fell back below $80,000. The move is consistent with higher-strike call options remaining out of the money ahead of settlement. Skew data also link the break below $80,000 with higher pricing for protection through put options.
Deribit determines the final delivery price for contracts expiring at 08:00 UTC using a time-weighted average of its index over the preceding 30 minutes, from 07:30 to 08:00. This procedure sets the settlement price using the index average over a defined time window, rather than relying on a single point-in-time reading at contract expiry. Weekly options on the platform expire every Friday at 08:00, while monthly options expire on the last Friday of each month at the same time. CoinDesk said Deribit is the largest cryptocurrency options platform by trading volumes and open interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum. This places the expiry within broad market activity, but notional value does not mean the same amount of cash changed hands at settlement.
After settlement, the results of the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 3 remain among the events options traders are watching. A Bloomberg report, as cited by Bloomingbit, quoted Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, as expecting options sellers to slow the issuance of new contracts until the election outcome becomes clear. The report said volatility drivers could persist even after the expiry. In the broader market context, Reuters quoted analysts urging investors to monitor U.S. economic data, Treasury yields and monetary policy signals before taking new positions. This comes as October 29 measures showed implied volatility remained above realized volatility over 30 days.