EL7.AI
CommoditiesMedium•30 October 2026•
4 min read

Asian gasoline margin falls to $24 a barrel as Chinese exports return

Key Facts

1The Asian gasoline refining margin was about $24 a barrel over Brent on October 16, compared with a record high of $50.53 on October 1.
2Singapore’s light distillate stocks rose to 13.806 million barrels in the week ended October 14.
3Gasoline imports to Singapore rose 11% to 320,000 tonnes, while exports fell 23% to about 486,000 tonnes in the week ended October 14.
4China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index stood at 50.1% in September, up 0.3 percentage points from August.

The Asian gasoline refining margin fell to about $24 a barrel over Brent crude on October 16, after reaching a record $50.53 on October 1, according to Reuters via Squawk News. Despite the sharp decline, the margin remained above the $13 a barrel recorded in October of the previous year. The drop came as Chinese fuel exports returned to the market after a brief halt, improving prompt supplies in Asia. An Energy Aspects analyst said, "Supply conditions have improved in the prompt market at least, with the return of Chinese exports." These developments put supply pressure at the forefront of factors explaining the decline in gasoline margins, alongside higher feedstock costs in Singapore.

China had resumed exports of refined oil products after a brief halt during the Golden Week holiday and approved October exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel totaling about 3.7 million tonnes, Reuters reported, citing two industry sources. Platts sources estimated China’s clean oil product exports in October at no less than 3.5 million tonnes, below September’s estimate of 4.36 million tonnes. The sources estimated gasoline exports alone at about 500,000 tonnes in October, while jet fuel accounted for about 60% of estimated total clean product exports. These estimates show gasoline as part of a broader flow of refined fuels to markets, with the expected overall volume varying between months. The Energy Aspects analyst also said increased refinery runs in Asia outside China during the fourth quarter could add further supplies.

On inventories, Singapore’s light distillate stocks, which include naphtha and gasoline, rose to a one-month high of 13.806 million barrels in the week ended October 14, according to Enterprise Singapore data cited by Reuters. In the same week, gasoline imports to the trading and blending hub rose about 11% to 320,000 tonnes, equivalent to 2.7 million barrels. Exports, by contrast, fell about 23% to nearly 486,000 tonnes during the week. The combination of higher imports and lower exports means more gasoline entered Singapore than left during the period. These flows are consistent with the improved prompt supply picture described by the Energy Aspects analyst, without determining on their own the extent of their impact on prices.

In a separate estimate published on October 27, a DBS report said Singapore’s refining margin fell to less than $3 a barrel in the previous week, its lowest level since late September. The report attributed this to the gasoline margin falling to about $20 a barrel as Asian supplies improved, while a recovery in Dubai crude raised feedstock costs. This estimate compares Singapore’s broader refining margin with Reuters’ figure for the gasoline margin over Brent on October 16; they are different measures covering different periods. DBS said, "Singapore’s refining margin fell to less than $3 a barrel last week, its lowest level since late September, as the gasoline margin dropped sharply to about $20 a barrel amid improving Asian supplies, while a recovery in Dubai raised feedstock costs." The report added that diesel and jet fuel margins remained supportive, distinguishing gasoline’s weakness from that of the other products it cited.

Chinese industrial activity data remain part of the backdrop for monitoring regional demand. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index stood at 50.1% in September, up 0.3 percentage points from August and moving into expansion territory, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. The manufacturing production index rose to 51.7%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, while the new orders index registered 50.5%, down 0.1 percentage points. The bureau said the purchasing managers’ index "stood at 50.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and moved into expansion territory." The readings present a mixed picture within manufacturing, with production and the headline reading improving while new orders edged lower. The next official purchasing managers’ index reading is due on October 31, 2026, according to information in the initial draft, while the date for the Caixin index has not been established in the available evidence.

The DBS report forecast that Singapore’s refining margin in the fourth quarter would be well below its third-quarter level, citing shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz as a key factor that could change the trajectory. It also expected freight costs to remain high during the fourth quarter, easing only with a lasting settlement over Hormuz. The report said, "We expect freight costs to remain high during the fourth quarter and to decline only when a lasting settlement over Hormuz is reached." At the same time, it pointed to continued support for diesel and jet fuel margins, despite its forecast for a decline in the overall refining margin. The fourth-quarter outlook, according to the report, therefore depends on the interaction of Asian supplies, feedstock and freight costs, and developments in passage through the strait.