ANZ Raises Brent Forecast to $105 a Barrel by Year-End as Supply Constraints Persist
Key Facts
ANZ raised its Brent crude forecast to $105 a barrel by the end of 2026, citing continued constraints on oil exports, shipping and refined-product markets, according to a ForInvest report published on October 30. The baseline forecast assumes no further escalation, with existing constraints sufficient to keep prices elevated through year-end. This changes the explanation for the revision in the initial draft, which linked it solely to a geopolitical risk premium. The revision comes amid a market marked by rising prices and falling inventories in the third quarter. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that Brent averaged $114 a barrel in September, up $23 from August. The price also reached $131 on September 15 after disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline.
EIA estimates indicate that supply pressures extended beyond spot prices. Global inventories fell by an average of 1.9 million barrels a day in the third quarter of 2026, and the agency expects a further decline averaging 0.7 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter. It said disrupted flows, higher transportation costs and risk premiums would keep prices elevated until flow constraints ease and inventories are replenished. These factors make continued export and shipping bottlenecks determinants of prices, alongside the availability of oil and products in the market. ANZ’s forecast, according to the published report, is based on those constraints persisting, not on an assumed new shock. The projected price level is therefore tied to how long supply and transport routes remain disrupted through the rest of the year.
The Strait of Hormuz is a focus of shipping risks after Iran said 3 oil tankers were hit by mines and caught fire as they tried to leave the strait via an unauthorized route, the Associated Press reported on October 29. The agency said the account was carried by Iran’s state broadcaster, citing the Revolutionary Guard. The development adds to concerns about tanker traffic as ANZ’s forecast is based on existing constraints on shipping. The report did not say that the baseline forecast assumes further escalation, distinguishing the continuation of current constraints from a new disruption. Ship movements and oil transportation costs remain relevant to the supply outlook cited in the report. The claim about the tankers was attributed to Iran, as reported by the agency, and was not presented as independent verification of the incident.
In the market, Brent rose 2% to $111.64 a barrel on October 28, according to the Associated Press, as uncertainty persisted over the Middle East and the global energy sector. That price is near ANZ’s forecast of $105 a barrel by year-end, but it is a reading for a specific day rather than a forecast for a later period. In its report published on October 6, the EIA had forecast an average of $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, up $14 from its previous month’s forecast. That puts the U.S. agency’s forecast and ANZ’s forecast at the same figure, though they differ in scope, date and source. Brent averaged $114 in September, while the October 28 figure records the market’s movement that day. These figures show prices remaining elevated amid supply and transportation constraints.
Looking beyond year-end, the EIA expects Brent to average $87 a barrel in the second quarter of 2027, then fall to $74 in the fourth quarter of the same year, as flows recover and inventories build. That path is tied to an easing of the bottlenecks that have kept prices elevated, according to the agency’s estimates. The forecast comes alongside the estimate of an average inventory draw of 0.7 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2026. The agency has set November 10, 2026, as the release date for its next Short-Term Energy Outlook. The report will update its estimates for prices, flows and inventories. ANZ’s estimate, meanwhile, remains based on export, shipping and refined-product constraints persisting through year-end.