Altria Raises 2026 Profit Forecast to $5.66–$5.74 per Share After Quarterly Earnings Growth
Key Facts
Altria raised its 2026 adjusted diluted earnings-per-share forecast to a range of $5.66–$5.74, equivalent to annual growth of 4.5% to 6.0% from a 2025 base of $5.42, after adjusted earnings rose 4.8% to $1.52 in the third quarter. The company said in its results statement that it expects to reach this range for the fiscal year, while Reuters reported that analysts’ average annual earnings estimate is $5.68 per share. The announcement came as quarterly results beat market estimates, with adjusted earnings of $1.52 per share versus an estimate of $1.51. Revenue was also $6.13 billion, compared with consensus of $5.31 billion, according to Reuters. The results highlight the company’s ability to grow earnings despite declining domestic cigarette volumes.
Net revenue was $6.132 billion in the third quarter, up 1.0% from the year-earlier period, while revenue after excise taxes reached $5.441 billion, up 3.6%. In the smokeable products segment, revenue after taxes increased 3.7% to $4.762 billion, from $4.590 billion a year earlier. The company attributed the increase mainly to higher prices, which partly offset increased promotional spending, lower shipments and a higher share of discounted shipments. The segment’s reported operating income rose 3.8% to $3.053 billion from $2.942 billion in the third quarter of 2025. Adjusted operating income margin also rose 0.1 percentage point to 64.5%.
Management said reported domestic cigarette volume fell 2.9% during the quarter and estimated the decline at 4% after adjusting for trade inventory movements. It said the adjusted decline was below the estimated industry decline of about 5%. This reflects continued pressure from falling volumes on the company’s core business, even as prices rose and segment income improved. Chief Executive Sal Mancuso said the company “delivered strong financial performance in the third quarter,” pointing to 4.8% growth in adjusted diluted earnings per share. He added that the company continues to invest in its long-term vision. Reported diluted earnings were $1.51 per share, up 7.1% from the third quarter of 2025.
In oral products, on! pouch shipments rose 13.3% to 47.8 million cans, and management said the growth reflected the national expansion of on! PLUS products in the 12 mg strength. But adjusted operating income for the oral tobacco segment fell 3.7% to $443 million. The company cited lower moist tobacco volume and increased promotional investment among the factors tied to the segment’s performance. The comparison shows a divergence between growth in nicotine pouch shipments and a decline in operating income for the segment as a whole. In the fourth quarter, Helix plans to expand the on! PLUS range with Watermelon Mint flavor, in 6, 9 and 12 mg strengths, at select retail locations.
Altria continued returning cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. The company paid dividends of $1.7 billion in the third quarter and $5.3 billion in the first nine months of 2026, while its current annualized dividend rate is $4.44 per share. The company raised its quarterly cash dividend by 4.7% in August, its sixty-first increase in 57 years, and set a target of growing annual per-share dividends at a mid-single-digit rate through 2028. It also repurchased 5.9 million shares in the third quarter at an average of $68.52 per share, for a total cost of $400 million. The board then authorized a $1 billion expansion of the repurchase program, with the expanded program set to end on December 31, 2027.
The company’s 2026 forecast assumes NJOY ACE does not return to the market during the year, alongside the effects of slower growth in the e-vapor category on combustible and electronic product volumes. Altria said its forecast also factors in manufacturing investments, its vision and its cost-reduction initiative. The new annual earnings range places the analyst estimate of $5.68 per share near its midpoint, between the low end of $5.66 and the high end of $5.74. The stock closed at $72.99 on October 29, according to Reuters via Investing.com. Shares rose 6.82% over the previous three months and 27.76% over 12 months through that date.