Intel Forecasts Adjusted Earnings of 25 Cents a Share and Revenue of $15 Billion to $16 Billion
Key Facts
Intel expects adjusted earnings of 25 cents a share and revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to guidance reported by The Wall Street Journal. The earnings forecast is below analysts’ estimate of 45 cents a share, while the revenue range is below their estimate of $17.29 billion. That puts the company’s upcoming results below market expectations on both measures. The weak guidance sent the company’s shares down about 20% on Thursday, October 29, according to an Investing.com report published on the day of the announcement. The gap has refocused attention on Intel’s ability to maintain quarterly earnings momentum amid weaker expectations for the next period.
The gap is clear in a comparison of forecast revenue with analysts’ estimate: Intel’s upper range of $16 billion remains below their $17.29 billion estimate. For adjusted earnings, the company expects 25 cents a share versus analysts’ estimate of 45 cents. These figures put management’s own outlook against the market benchmark for the coming quarter, as the shares fell after the guidance was released. According to Investing.com, the decline reached about 20% in Thursday’s session. That reflects investors’ sensitivity to the gap between the company’s performance in the quarter just ended and its expectations for the next quarter, as reported in market coverage.
On operating profitability, adjusted gross margin was 44.1% in the third quarter of 2026, up from 40% in the same period a year earlier, according to Investing.com. But the company expects this measure to fall to 38% in the fourth quarter. The forecast points to a decline from the third-quarter level, after the margin recorded year-over-year growth in that period. This outlook adds another dimension to the lowered forecast: revenue and earnings are below analysts’ estimates, while adjusted margin is also expected to decline in the coming period. The comparison between the two quarters provides a direct frame for assessing the shift from improving margins to an expected decline.
By contrast, Intel Foundry reported revenue of $6.7 billion in the third quarter, up 58% year over year, according to Investing.com. The company also generated $5.1 billion in operating cash flow during the quarter. These results provide context on the company’s manufacturing business, which recorded annual revenue growth alongside the reported operating cash flow. However, fourth-quarter guidance sets these quarterly figures alongside weaker earnings and revenue expectations, while adjusted gross margin remains another focus of the outlook. Against this backdrop, the growth indicators reported in the third quarter sit alongside the company’s and the market’s expectations for the coming period.
The challenge facing the company also extends to the personal-computer market: Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said the slowdown could continue through at least the first half of next year. His estimate suggests market weakness may persist through part of 2027, following the third-quarter results and fourth-quarter guidance. This time horizon puts the finance chief’s warning in a broader context than the coming quarter alone. It also coincides with the company’s expectation that adjusted gross margin will fall to 38% in the fourth quarter and with a revenue range below analysts’ estimate. In contrast, Intel Foundry’s revenue grew in the third quarter, highlighting the differing indicators across the company’s businesses and reporting periods.
The next milestone set out in the company’s guidance is its fourth-quarter 2026 results, with revenue expected at $15 billion to $16 billion and adjusted earnings of 25 cents a share. Investors are comparing those figures with analysts’ estimates reported by The Wall Street Journal: $17.29 billion in revenue and 45 cents a share in earnings. Management’s outlook also includes a decline in adjusted gross margin to 38%, after 44.1% in the third quarter. Further out, the chief financial officer said the personal-computer market slowdown could continue through at least the first half of next year. These indicators follow a roughly 20% drop in the shares on Thursday after the guidance.