Gold falls 2.7% to $3,910.53 an ounce, hits lowest level in a year
Key Facts
Spot gold fell 2.7% to $3,910.53 an ounce by 10:05 a.m. Eastern time on Oct. 30, its lowest level since October 2025, according to Reuters via MarketScreener. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 2.8% to $3,919.60 an ounce at the same time. The metal was down 5.9% since the start of the month, heading for a monthly loss for a second consecutive month. In a later update at 10:58 a.m., spot gold was down 2.6% at $3,916.64, and futures fell 2.6% to $3,925.90, according to Investing.com, citing Reuters. EL7 data showed the gold-dollar pair closing at 3,903.735 on Oct. 30, compared with 4,020.565 the previous day.
The decline came after gold spent much of the week fluctuating around $4,000 an ounce, supported by buying from Chinese households and other long-term investors as prices fell, according to Reuters. But higher oil prices kept inflation concerns in focus and bolstered expectations of tighter monetary policy at the Federal Reserve's final meeting of the year in December. Peter Grant of Zaner Metals said, "Persistent concerns about inflation are keeping several central banks tilted toward tightening." He added that the "higher for longer" rate outlook was weighing on precious metals, which yield no income. Reuters also cited a broader sell-off in equities and a reassessment of returns on AI spending among factors affecting the market.
The decline coincided with the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' estimate that real gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, after 2.2% in the second quarter. The reading was above economists' 3% forecast in a FactSet survey cited by the Associated Press. The bureau attributed third-quarter growth to increases in investment, consumer spending and government spending, partly offset by a decline in exports. Investment accelerated, while government spending reversed course and rose compared with the previous quarter. On prices, the personal consumption expenditures index rose at an annual rate of 2.1%, while the core index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.5%.
Price signals from the GDP data diverged from the inflation pressures traders relied on in assessing the interest-rate outlook. The U.S. consumer price index rose 3.7% year over year in September, versus 3.4% in August, and increased 0.6% month over month, its largest gain in five months, according to the Associated Press. On Oct. 28, the Federal Reserve held its target rate range at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-to-2 vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented, favoring a quarter-percentage-point increase in the range. The central bank said inflation remained elevated and set its target at 2%.
October's weakness followed a decline in gold in September, when it ended the month at $4,176 an ounce, with a monthly return of -8.5% and a year-to-date return through Sept. 30 of -4.4%, according to the World Gold Council. The council attributed part of the decline to higher U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar: the 10-year Treasury yield rose 53 basis points to 5.3%, and the dollar index gained 2%. At the same time, UK-listed gold funds attracted 54 tonnes in the third quarter and recorded inflows in 12 of 13 weeks through Sept. 25. The council's model had projected inflows of about 18 tonnes, making actual inflows 36 tonnes higher than its estimate. The flows show that British investors continued buying during a quarter in which gold prices fell.
Attention ahead is focused on U.S. inflation data and the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting. The October consumer price index is scheduled for release on Nov. 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The Fed will also publish on Nov. 18 the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on Oct. 27 and 28, which left rates unchanged and saw two members dissent in favor of an increase. On Nov. 25 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its second estimate of third-quarter GDP and corporate profits. These dates follow gold's monthly decline and growing market sensitivity to inflation data and interest-rate expectations.