Waste Connections raises 2026 revenue outlook to $10.09 billion and increases dividend 10%
Key Facts
Waste Connections raised its 2026 revenue outlook to about $10.09 billion and announced a 10% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $0.385 per share, after reporting third-quarter revenue of $2.638 billion and adjusted net income of $398.9 million. Revenue rose from $2.458 billion in the same period of 2025, while adjusted net income increased from $372.0 million, the company said in its results statement. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.58, compared with $1.44 a year earlier. The results also showed reported net income of $359.2 million, or $1.43 per share, compared with $286.3 million and $1.11 per share in the third quarter of 2025. The company linked the period's performance to improved landfill activity and commodity-related revenue, alongside continued operational execution.
Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were $895.8 million in the third quarter, compared with $830.3 million in the year-earlier period, with a margin of 34.0% of revenue. The chief executive said solid waste volumes improved sequentially by 70 basis points, driven by higher landfill volumes. He added that the company overcame a late-quarter rise in diesel prices and delivered 50 basis points of core adjusted EBITDA margin expansion. "We overcame the late-quarter rise in diesel prices to deliver a 34% adjusted EBITDA margin, with 50 basis points of core margin expansion," he said. The company said these indicators reflect the contribution of improved landfill volumes to business growth despite fuel-cost pressure late in the quarter.
For the nine months ended September 30, 2026, revenue rose to $7.570 billion from $7.094 billion in the same period of 2025. Net income for the nine months was $875.0 million, or $3.45 per diluted share, compared with $818.1 million and $3.16 per share in the same period a year earlier. These figures provide a broader view of the company's performance through the end of September, alongside third-quarter revenue and earnings growth. The company also said acquisitions closed since the start of the year had added about $130 million in annual revenue. The chief executive said the company had repurchased more than $1 billion of shares since the start of the year, equivalent to 2.5% of shares outstanding.
The company expects 2026 revenue of about $10.09 billion, net income of about $1.18 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $3.345 billion. It also forecast adjusted free cash flow of between $1.40 billion and $1.45 billion, with capital expenditures expected to be about $1.25 billion. The chief executive said the company expects to exceed the revenue and adjusted earnings guidance it raised in July, and is positioned to deliver double-digit growth in adjusted free cash flow, reaching at least $1.4 billion. These figures include the company's estimates for net income and adjusted free cash flow; the statement did not describe them as revised annual forecasts. The company said its estimates assume no change in the economic environment and current trends, and exclude the impact of any additional acquisitions that may close during the year.
Alongside the results and outlook, the company approved an increase in its regular cash dividend from $0.350 to $0.385 per share, a 10.0% increase. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on November 19, 2026, to shareholders of record on November 5. The company tied the higher cash return to shareholders to its results growth, while its chief executive also noted that share repurchases had exceeded $1 billion since the start of the year. On September 30, the company had announced that third-quarter results would be released after the market close on October 21 and that its investor conference call would be held on October 22 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The call was therefore scheduled to discuss the results and new outlook after their announcement.