U.S. Natural Gas Settles at 2.957 After Retreating From 3.032 in the Previous Session
Key Facts
EL7’s daily natural gas series settled lower at 2.957 on October 29, down from 3.032 on October 28, a price move the available data did not attribute to a specific cause. The open U.S. Energy Information Administration report does not confirm an inventory reading for the week ended October 23 or compare that reading with market expectations. The available report covers the week ended October 16, when working inventories rose by 77 billion cubic feet. These figures therefore do not support a claim that the inventory increase exceeded expectations or drove prices lower.
U.S. working gas inventories stood at 3,644 billion cubic feet on October 16, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Inventories posted a net increase of 77 billion cubic feet from the previous week. Year over year, inventories were 152 billion cubic feet below their level in the same period last year. They remained 35 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 3,609 billion cubic feet. The figures describe inventory levels and comparisons; the open report does not provide an explanation linking them to price movements.
Separately, U.S. real gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on October 29. Growth accelerated from an annual rate of 2.2% in the second quarter, the bureau said. Both figures measure the annualized change in real output, and the third quarter covers July, August and September. The bureau said the increase reflected gains in investment, consumer spending and government spending. A decline in exports partly offset those gains, according to the bureau’s statement.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.9% in the third quarter, compared with a 4.6% increase in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The measure provides a reading on private domestic spending within the details of the advance GDP estimate. The bureau’s data thus showed the measure accelerating between the two quarters, alongside an increase in the annualized real GDP growth rate from 2.2% to 3.4%. These economic indicators coincided with the natural gas price move recorded on October 29, but do not establish a causal link between them and the change in the daily settlement.
In its October 6 outlook, the Energy Information Administration projected inventories would increase by 328 billion cubic feet during October, slightly below the usual average increase, to reach 3,850 billion cubic feet at month-end. The report estimated that level would be 2% above the five-year average as the heating season begins on November 1. It also said gas injections into storage could continue through mid-November, depending on weather and market conditions. The outlook places the inventory path in the context of the transition to the heating season, while making continued injections conditional on weather and market factors.
In its annual supply and demand outlook, the Energy Information Administration estimated average U.S. dry natural gas production at 112.20 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, against projected consumption of 92.37 billion cubic feet per day. It also forecast LNG exports rising from 17.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 to 18.6 billion in 2027. On weather, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center forecast issued on October 15 showed above-normal temperature probabilities across the northern two-thirds of the United States in November. If realized, that could limit heating demand, based on the available data.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis set November 25, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, for the release of its second estimate of third-quarter GDP and corporate profits. The Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its next monthly energy outlook on November 10, 2026. Both releases follow the advance GDP estimate and energy outlook issued in October, while the inventory data available in the open report remain for the week ended October 16.