WTI jumps 3% to $102.78 as supply risks mount

Key Facts

West Texas Intermediate crude ended Wednesday, October 28, up $2.88, or 3%, at $102.78 a barrel, while Brent rose $1.44, or 1%, to $115.32, according to a Reuters report via Investing.com. The report attributed oil’s gains to renewed concerns about disruptions to energy supplies in the Middle East, amid continued fighting in Yemen and a reported attack on a Saudi refinery. It added that concern the United States could resume strikes on Iran after the midterm elections supported prices. The gains coincided with data showing U.S. crude inventories fell for a fourth consecutive week. But inventories were not the only factor driving the market, as the drawdown signal overlapped with geopolitical risks that could affect supply flows.

U.S. commercial crude inventories fell from 412.517 million barrels in the week ended October 16 to 410.625 million barrels in the week ended October 23, Energy Information Administration data showed. That was a fourth consecutive weekly decline, while a Reuters poll had forecast an increase of 15 thousand barrels. Across the four weeks shown, inventories fell from 427.320 million barrels on September 25 to 424.134 million on October 2, then to 415.577 million on October 9, before declining to 412.517 million and then 410.625 million. By contrast, total gasoline inventories rose to 209.180 million barrels in the week ended October 23, from 205.310 million the previous week. These movements presented a mixed picture for fuel inventories, with crude declining and gasoline rising over the same period.

On trade flows, U.S. net crude imports fell by 796 thousand barrels per day in the week ended October 23, according to Energy Information Administration data cited by Reuters. Exports rose by 1.4 million barrels per day to 4.85 million barrels per day. In Yemen, government forces said the Houthis attacked Aden airport on Wednesday, after the group warned residents to evacuate the facility as fighting intensified. The Houthis also said they had targeted Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery with a missile; the refinery has capacity of 550 thousand barrels per day. Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the attack, according to Reuters. These developments kept the risk of disruption to energy facilities in market pricing, without confirming that damage had occurred at the refinery.

A Reuters report quoted an analyst at BOK Financial as saying crude futures were "re-pricing for tighter near-term supplies," amid the possibility that the United States could soon resume military operations, perhaps at a greater pace than before following recent attacks on Saudi Arabia and other allies in the Middle East. The Associated Press reported that U.S. officials had asked regional allies to take precautionary measures in case Iran’s responses included retaliatory strikes on energy facilities and critical infrastructure. The agency said the United States had not carried out a strike on Iran since early September, while the timing of the military’s readiness for any potential strikes after the midterm elections remained unclear. By contrast, Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran was still giving diplomacy a chance and raised the possibility of implementing Tehran’s proposed seven-day plan in less than a week if it were put into effect. The U.S. midterm elections were scheduled for November 3, and the report said analysts believed new U.S. strikes on Iran could occur sometime after that date.

The market will next turn its attention to the OPEC+ producers’ meeting expected on Sunday, with people familiar with the matter cited by Reuters expecting oil output targets for December to remain unchanged. The meeting would add an output decision to the list of factors traders are monitoring, alongside developments in the fighting and supply risks in the region. This comes as U.S. inventory signals diverge, with crude falling and gasoline rising, according to data for the week ended October 23. The Energy Information Administration set November 4, 2026, as the release date for its next Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The report will therefore be released after the expected OPEC+ meeting and the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 3.