Takeda Raises 2026 Revenue Forecast to ¥4,700 Billion, Citing Foreign Exchange
Key Facts
Takeda raised its forecast for fiscal 2026, projecting revenue of ¥4,700.0 billion, up from ¥4,640.0 billion, and reported operating profit of ¥453.0 billion, up from ¥420.0 billion. The company said in its first-half results statement that the revision mainly reflected "foreign exchange benefits." Its forecast for core revenue at constant exchange rates, however, continued to point to a low-single-digit decline. That means the higher nominal estimate did not change the revenue trajectory when currency effects are excluded. The fiscal year ends in March 2027.
For the first half, net profit rose 171.8% to ¥305.6 billion. Core operating profit increased to ¥710.6 billion, up 11.2% at actual exchange rates, but grew just 0.7% at constant currencies. The comparison highlights the different effects of currency translation on reported results and the adjusted core measure. The company also raised its full-year core operating profit forecast to ¥1,190.0 billion from ¥1,160.0 billion. Its estimate for core earnings per share increased to ¥482 from ¥472.
Takeda also revised its annual net profit forecast to ¥209.0 billion from ¥166.0 billion, and its reported earnings per share forecast to ¥131 from ¥104. At constant exchange rates, the company improved its core operating profit forecast from a decline of between 5% and 8% to a mid-single-digit decline. It also narrowed the expected decline in core earnings per share from the mid-teens to the low-teens. The forecast for core revenue remained a low-single-digit decline. The revisions reflect improved core profitability estimates even as revenue guidance on that basis was unchanged.
Adjusted free cash flow, by contrast, fell 38.0% in the first half to ¥325.7 billion, from ¥525.4 billion in the same period a year earlier. The company raised its forecast for the measure in the fiscal year to a range of ¥700.0–¥800.0 billion, from ¥650.0–¥750.0 billion. It kept its expected annual dividend at ¥204 per share. Chief Financial Officer Milano Furuta said the company was "reinvesting transformation savings to support new product launches and pipeline development." The first-half decline in cash flow sits alongside the expected increases in annual profit as the company continues to fund launches and drug development.
Takeda's launches include MIMRYLO, which it launched in the United States in August 2026 to treat polycythemia vera with an elevated red blood cell count. ORZEYFUL was also launched in Japan and China on October 15 to treat narcolepsy type 1 in adults. The company said its U.S. launch remains subject to Drug Enforcement Administration scheduling and is expected in early November. These dates show some of the company's products moving into commercial availability as it raises its financial estimates for the year. The company did not link these launches to specific sales figures in its published guidance.
In its development pipeline, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration accepted Takeda's application for zasocitinib for priority review to treat adults with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis. The European Medicines Agency also accepted the marketing authorization application for review. The company said the drug remains investigational pending regulatory approvals and that it is planning for a commercial launch, subject to those approvals. Takeda will host a Capital Markets Day in Tokyo on December 11, 2026. It set January 28, 2027, as the date for reporting its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results.
Takeda's U.S.-listed shares closed at $20.15 on October 28, 2026, according to EL7 data. The third-quarter results in January are the next announced milestone for tracking revenue and profitability during the fiscal year. The company enters that period with higher nominal estimates for revenue and profit than in its previous guidance. But its core revenue forecast still points to a low-single-digit contraction, while estimates for core operating profit and core earnings per share have improved. The Capital Markets Day scheduled for December is another upcoming event.