StoneX Forecasts 64,000-Tonne Cocoa Market Deficit in 2026/27
Key Facts
StoneX expects the global cocoa market to shift from a 494,000-tonne surplus in 2025/26 to a 64,000-tonne deficit in 2026/27, according to a statement published by the company on October 28, 2026. The change comes as global production is expected to fall 9.6% to about 4.74 million tonnes next season. Meanwhile, the company raised its estimate for global demand this season to 4.69 million tonnes, an increase of 30,000 tonnes. It said grindings in the regions it tracks reached 903,000 tonnes in the third quarter. These estimates link an expected decline in supply with continuing demand, after current-season data showed a large surplus. That puts the next season's market balance under pressure from falling production, despite the expected abundance this season.
The expected cuts are concentrated in West Africa, the largest production region cited in StoneX's estimates. The company estimates Ivory Coast production at about 1.75 million tonnes in 2026/27, down 14.6% from the previous season. It also expects Ghana's output to fall from about 700,000 tonnes in 2025/26 to 580,000 tonnes next season, or roughly 17%. StoneX attributed its forecasts to varying weather conditions across production regions, including below-average rainfall in Ivory Coast, drought in Indonesia and excess moisture in Ecuador. Its statement therefore does not attribute the shift to a deficit to El Niño alone, but places it among a range of regional factors affecting crops. Weak weather in West Africa is also a factor; company analyst Luca Bizzon said June is important for the growth of beans to be harvested in the following season.
StoneX expects Brazil's output to reach 210,000 tonnes in 2026/27, compared with its estimate of 226,000 tonnes for the current season. Factors being monitored in the country include drought and fires in Pará state, as well as the possibility of below-average rainfall in southern Bahia between December 2026 and February 2027. These forecasts form part of a production outlook that varies by country, while climate risks extend beyond West Africa. In a broader market estimate, the International Cocoa Organization said global production in 2024/25 rose 8.5% year on year to 4.733 million tonnes. But global grindings fell 3.3% that season to 4.649 million tonnes. Exports of cocoa beans and semi-finished products, measured in bean equivalents, reached 2.09 million tonnes between January and March 2026, down 2.8% from the corresponding period of the previous season.
The contrast between this season's surplus and the expected deficit later reflects changing estimates over recent months. On August 10, 2026, StoneX cut its forecast for a 2026/27 surplus from about 149,000 tonnes to about 25,000 tonnes, citing a weaker upcoming crop in West Africa. In its October statement, the company's estimate shifted from an expected surplus next season to a 64,000-tonne deficit. In its update issued on October 8, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said El Niño continued to strengthen. It estimated the probability that it would remain strong to very strong through January–March 2027 at more than 83%. The International Cocoa Organization said futures prices remained highly sensitive during the April-to-June quarter to demand and weather indicators and production risks in major producing countries.
Market data showed mixed movements on October 28: the International Cocoa Organization's cocoa reference price stood at $5,705.13 per tonne on October 27, then $5,601.07 the following day. In EL7 data, the cocoa index closed at 5,456 on October 28, then at 5,471 on October 29, according to the index unit used in that data. StoneX shares, traded under the ticker SNEX, closed at $56.04 on October 28. A StoneX analyst said the 2027/28 crop, which follows next season, could also be weak if El Niño risks persist. Among upcoming dates, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration set November 12, 2026, for its next discussion of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. The International Cocoa Organization will also publish its quarterly bulletin in November, as part of its February, May, August and November schedule, covering production, grindings, stocks and prices.