Estimates of Saudi Oil Exports Diverge Between 5.4 and 6.99 Million Barrels a Day
Key Facts
Estimates of Saudi oil exports diverged in October, with Tankertrackers.com putting flows at 6.99 million barrels a day through October 28, compared with 5.4 million barrels a day from Kpler, a level below September. Vortexa estimated exports from the eastern and western coasts at about 6.5 million barrels a day, compared with 6.6 million the previous month. The figures show a wide gap among tanker trackers in measuring the month's flows, rather than recording a confirmed peak since February as an earlier version of the report stated. Bloomberg attributed the divergence mainly to tankers switching off their satellite transmitters to conceal their locations and reduce the risk of attacks. This comes as shipping routes change following the resumption of the East-West pipeline link.
By route, exports via the Red Sea, mostly from Yanbu, rose to 2.5 million barrels a day in October through the report date, from 2.4 million in September, according to Vortexa. By contrast, flows through the Persian Gulf fell to 4 million barrels a day, from 4.2 million the previous month, amid repeated disruptions. The resumption of the East-West pipeline link reopened the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz routes for exports after they were halted following last month's attack. These shifts reflect a redistribution of flows between the two coasts, while tracking the total volume remains difficult given differences in tracker estimates and shipping risks. The International Energy Agency said in its October 14 report that crude exports from Gulf producers, led by Saudi Arabia, rose by 4.4 million barrels a day in September to 13.9 million, exceeding 75% of pre-war levels.
In trade dealings, Aramco allowed European buyers whose contractual loadings had been canceled to compete for spot cargoes for October and November to make up for the volumes they had missed. The report does not describe the move as a strategic response to demand, but links it directly to replacing canceled contractual shipments. The company also asked some Asian buyers to resume taking oil from Yanbu in November, for the first time in three months. This points to buyers returning to the Red Sea route as the pipeline link is restored. Against this backdrop, the International Energy Agency said the return of flows through the East-West pipeline lifted exports on routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz by 970,000 barrels a day to 5.6 million barrels a day in September.
The restoration of flows was reflected in the Gulf's physical crude market, with the Oman-Dubai price differential falling to about $6 a barrel on Tuesday, October 27, from nearly $34 in September, according to a Bloomberg report. The differential is a gauge of the strength of the Gulf crude market and on its own does not establish a broader trend in global oil prices. In closing data for October 29, Brent crude stood at $109.60 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate closed at $100.48. On the production side, Saudi Arabia told OPEC that its output rose by a third in September to more than 8.3 million barrels a day, the highest level during the war, according to the report. The International Energy Agency recorded a month-on-month increase of 2.5 million barrels a day in global oil supply in September, to 102.3 million barrels a day, while warning that renewed attacks on infrastructure and tanker traffic could threaten the recovery's continuation.
In a broader assessment, the International Monetary Fund said disruption to trade, including oil exports, had weakened non-oil activity and confidence in Saudi Arabia, and that rerouting oil through the East-West pipeline to Red Sea ports had limited the decline in deliveries. The fund estimated real GDP growth at 1.7% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027. In the oil market, the International Energy Agency forecast that the global market would remain in deficit through the end of the year, with tight supplies of middle distillates potentially continuing into 2027, and said a surplus could emerge in 2027 if the projected path continues. The seven OPEC+ countries kept September production requirements in place for November and set November 1 for their next meeting. The resumption of cargo receipts from Yanbu during November will be among the near-term developments the market is watching, alongside the OPEC+ meeting on the announced date.