Saudi Oil Export Estimates Diverge, Ranging from 5.4 to 6.99 Million Barrels a Day in October
Key Facts
Estimates of Saudi oil exports in October ranged from 5.4 million to 6.99 million barrels a day, a divergence reflecting the difficulty of tracking shipments across export routes. Vortexa estimated total exports from the eastern and western coasts at 6.5 million barrels a day so far this month, compared with 6.6 million in September. TankerTrackers.com put the estimate at 6.99 million barrels a day, while Kpler estimated exports at 5.4 million, below the previous month's level. Bloomberg reported, in an article published by Rigzone on October 28, that the widening gap between the figures has left tanker trackers divided over actual flows. The estimates come amid regional shipping disruptions, while the figures alone do not establish that exports have reached a record level.
Bloomberg said some of the difference in estimates stems from tankers switching off their satellite transponders to conceal their locations and reduce the risk of attack. This limits tracking systems' ability to determine vessels' routes and destinations, making it harder to measure the volumes of oil that have left ports. The agency reported that tankers are “now switching off their satellite transponders to conceal their locations.” This means figures published by tracking companies do not provide a unified reading of export volumes this month. Tanker movements through the strait also remain a factor affecting shipment timing and routes.
Vortexa's estimates point to a modest shift between the Red Sea and Gulf routes. Exports via the Red Sea, mostly from the port of Yanbu, were 2.5 million barrels a day so far in October, up from 2.4 million in September. By contrast, shipments via the Gulf fell to 4 million barrels a day, compared with 4.2 million the previous month. The divergence coincides with the resumption of operations on the East-West pipeline, after shipments through the Strait of Hormuz rose when the pipeline was halted. Bloomberg said the resumption of the link “has now opened both the Red Sea and Hormuz routes,” allowing export routes on both sides of the kingdom to be used.
The East-West pipeline's capacity provides context for the flexibility of the Yanbu route in moving crude to the Red Sea coast. Saudi Aramco said the pipeline reached its maximum capacity of 7.0 million barrels a day in the first quarter, describing it as a “vital supply artery.” Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry announced in April that full pumping capacity had been restored, after attacks caused the loss of about 700,000 barrels a day of capacity. The ministry estimated the restored capacity at about 7 million barrels a day. The International Monetary Fund said rerouting oil to Red Sea ports limited the decline in deliveries during the disruptions.
On demand for shipments, Aramco asked some Asian buyers to resume taking oil from Yanbu starting in November, after they had received shipments from an Egyptian port on the Mediterranean during the disruption. It also told European buyers whose contractual shipments had been canceled that they could bid for spot cargoes in October and November to make up for missed volumes. These arrangements give buyers different routes for receiving crude after previous loading plans were disrupted. The IMF had said Yanbu crude loadings averaged close to 4½ million barrels a day after shipments were rerouted. Its baseline forecast also assumed oil production and exports would return to pre-conflict levels by October, with crude and refined-product exports averaging 7.5 million barrels a day during 2026.
The divergence in export estimates coincided with a narrowing spread between Oman and Dubai crude in the physical market. The spread was about $6 a barrel on Tuesday, October 27, compared with about $34 in September, after falling to its lowest level since July earlier in the month. Bloomberg cited the decline as an indication that pressure in the Gulf's physical crude market had eased. Shipping risks remained in the region, however: Iran said on October 29 that 3 oil tankers had struck mines and caught fire in the preceding 24 hours, while the Associated Press said it was unable to immediately confirm the account. Brent closed at $110.21 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $102, in closing data for October 29.