Estimates Put Samsung HBM Revenue at $8.7 Billion in Third Quarter
Key Facts
Bernstein estimated Samsung's high-bandwidth memory (HBM) revenue at $8.7 billion in the third quarter of 2026, up 33% from the previous quarter, Investing.com reported. The estimate puts the company ahead of SK hynix, whose revenue from the same category was estimated at $7.6 billion, up 11% quarter on quarter, according to the Korea Herald. Neither company disclosed standalone HBM revenue in its official results, leaving the third-quarter ranking as an analytical estimate rather than a direct disclosure. Samsung's estimate was also 10% below Bernstein's initial forecast for the quarter. The figure comes amid a rapidly changing race for memory used in AI applications and data centers.
Bernstein based its estimates on a regression analysis of semiconductor exports from South Korea's main production regions, according to the Korean newspaper. South Korean HBM exports rose 45% month on month and 131% year on year in September, signaling a pickup in commercial activity in the sector. The gap between SK hynix's and Samsung's HBM market shares narrowed from 49 percentage points in the second quarter of 2025 to 17 points in the second quarter of 2026. The figures suggest the gap between the companies is narrowing, but they do not turn the quarterly revenue estimate into an official result. Samsung's lead in the third-quarter estimate was a possible reflection of that competitive shift, according to Bernstein's calculations.
Samsung linked strong memory demand to momentum in server demand, saying it had lifted market prices across applications. The company added that capacity constraints persisted during the quarter, while HBM4 sales expanded in response to demand driven by AI applications. Samsung said its memory business posted its highest quarterly revenue and operating profit, without disclosing an HBM revenue figure in its statement. Samsung began commercial HBM4 shipments in February, while SK hynix began large-scale shipments in the second quarter, according to the Korea Herald. The companies are also competing to supply memory for the Vera Rubin platform, the newspaper reported, though the sources do not establish that demand tied to the platform was a specific driver of quarterly revenue.
The HBM estimate came during a strong quarter for both companies, but their published official figures measure their businesses overall and do not break out revenue from this memory. Samsung reported record consolidated revenue of 195.3 trillion won and operating profit of 107.4 trillion won in the third quarter, with revenue up 14% from the previous quarter. SK hynix reported total revenue of 104.6155 trillion won, up 32% quarter on quarter, and operating profit of 83.3338 trillion won. The results offer a picture of the strength of the semiconductor cycle at both companies, while the HBM revenue ranking remains based on Bernstein estimates. Reuters said SK hynix's results and strong outlook eased market concerns that profits from AI-driven chips were losing momentum and helped lift both companies' shares.
SK hynix expects memory demand to remain above supply through 2030, citing the difficulty of advanced processes and the long lead time needed to build new production facilities. The company said long-term supply agreements it has signed cover more than 50% of its production capacity for 2027 and 2028. In the nearer term, it expects HBM4 to surpass HBM3E in shipment volume and revenue during the fourth quarter and become the dominant product. Samsung expects investment in AI infrastructure to continue in the fourth quarter of 2026, with capital expenditure on that infrastructure reaching a historic level in 2027. The outlook puts competition for HBM4 in a market where both companies expect memory demand to remain strong.