Republic Airways Raises 2026 EBITDAR Forecast to $410–420 Million
Key Facts
Republic Airways reported third-quarter 2026 results on October 29 and raised its full-year adjusted profitability forecast in an update that revised its Adjusted EBITDAR range and added a forecast for adjusted earnings per share. The company said the new Adjusted EBITDAR range is $410–420 million, compared with $395–405 million in the previous forecast issued on July 30. It also expected Adjusted diluted EPS to exceed $3.30 per share. The revision did not change its annual revenue forecast of about $2.1 billion or its flight-hour production target of about 880,000 hours. The higher profitability estimate came as quarterly results expanded, with growth in revenue and net income, while the Mesa integration remained part of the company’s operating and financial backdrop.
Third-quarter revenue was $553.5 million, up $141.5 million, or 34.3%, year over year, according to a company statement carried by Nasdaq. Republic attributed most of the increase to 26.2% growth in flight-hour production, driven by the addition of 60 E175 aircraft operating for United Airlines following its merger with Mesa. The company reported net income of $34.6 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.75. Adjusted net income per diluted share was $0.85, while Adjusted EBITDAR reached $106.8 million for the quarter. Compared with the first quarter, revenue rose from $527.4 million to $553.5 million, net income increased from $26.9 million to $34.6 million, and diluted earnings per share climbed from $0.58 to $0.75.
Operating expenses rose to $490.3 million, up $105.2 million, or 27.3%, year over year. The company said the increase was primarily due to expenses associated with expanded flight operations. This reflects part of the cost of higher production and the addition of aircraft and related employees following the merger. Elsewhere, pass-through revenue increased by $49.1 million, which the company attributed primarily to shop-level maintenance work related to the Mesa integration. Revenue growth therefore coincided with higher expenses, while the company recorded positive net income and adjusted earnings per share above reported diluted earnings per share.
Operationally, Republic Airways operated 114,876 flights in the third quarter, with a completion factor of 94.59%. The controllable completion factor rose to 99.96% after excluding the effects of weather, air traffic control and partner cancellations, according to the company’s definition. These metrics show the scale of operations alongside the growth in flight-hour production that the company cited as the main driver of revenue growth. Consolidated third-quarter results included Mesa’s results, while the comparative periods did not. Republic Airways Holdings and Mesa Air Group completed their merger on November 25, 2025, meaning the year-over-year revenue comparison is between a period that includes Mesa’s results and one that does not.
The company continues to align Mesa’s operations following the merger, saying shop-level maintenance work contributed to the increase in pass-through revenue. Integration measures include moving Mesa’s operations center to Carmel and working to obtain a single operating certificate, according to the company statement. Republic expects the integration to be completed in the first half of 2028. That timeline makes completion a forthcoming operational milestone following the increase in aircraft and production during the third quarter. The company’s revenue and flight-hour forecasts for the current year remain unchanged, while the update raised its Adjusted EBITDAR estimate and added an adjusted earnings-per-share forecast.
In another operational move, the company announced an agreement with American Airlines to place five previously unallocated aircraft into service in December 2026. The timetable calls for the aircraft to be added during the final two months of the year, after they had been outside operational allocation. The move follows the 60 E175 aircraft that the company said it added to operate for United Airlines following the merger. Republic’s statement links quarterly revenue growth to increased flight-hour production, driven primarily by that addition. The entry into service of the five aircraft under the agreement with American is the next dated operational development announced by the company.