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Central BanksMedium•29 October 2026•
1 min read

RBNZ Governor Breman Signals Likely December Rate Hike After Surprise Hold

Key Facts

1RBNZ Governor Anna Breman stated that the chances of a rate hike in December are high.
2The RBNZ held the cash rate at 2.75% on Wednesday in a move that surprised markets.
3Markets are currently pricing in approximately a 77% chance of a rate hike in December.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman stated that the chances of a rate hike in December are high. This follows the RBNZ's surprise decision to hold the cash rate at 2.75% on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. According to investinglive.com, markets are currently pricing in approximately a 77% probability of a rate increase in the upcoming December meeting.

The Governor's hawkish clarification aims to counter dovish market sentiment and support the New Zealand dollar after the recent hold. Economic data released on October 29, 2026, showed ANZ Business Confidence at 52.5, exceeding the forecast of 51.5. The previous policy decision was a close call, with the committee split 4-3 in favor of maintaining the current rate to assess prior increases.

Market attention now shifts to high-impact employment data scheduled for release on November 3, 2026. The reports will include the quarterly Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate, which is forecasted at 5.5%, providing further clarity on the likelihood of a December move.

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