Oatly cuts 2026 adjusted earnings forecast to $16–20 million
Key Facts
Oatly cut its 2026 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization forecast to a range of $16–20 million, from $25–35 million previously, in its third-quarter results announcement issued on October 28, 2026. The company kept its constant-currency revenue growth forecast at 8–10%. Chief Executive Jean-Christophe Flatin said the latest wave of fuel and freight inflation in North America was "stronger and faster than expected." He added that the delayed impact of mitigation measures would hurt earnings in the fourth quarter and lead to a reduction in the full-year outlook. The earnings revision comes as the company continues to post revenue growth, but faces cost pressures and varied performance across its markets.
Third-quarter revenue was $243.1 million, up 9.1% year over year, or 8.9% excluding the impact of foreign-exchange rate changes. Sales volume also rose 4.2% to 156.9 million liters, compared with 150.6 million liters in the same period of 2025. Volume growth provides a numerical basis for the revenue increase, while the difference between the reported growth rate and the constant-currency rate shows the impact of currency movements on the year-over-year comparison. On February 11, 2026, the company had forecast constant-currency revenue growth of 3% to 5%, before later raising its range to 8–10%. By contrast, it had kept its initial adjusted earnings forecast at $25–35 million before cutting it in the third-quarter update.
Geographic performance varied markedly during the quarter. Revenue in Europe and International Markets rose 19.5% to $147.2 million, an increase of $24.0 million, according to the company statement. Greater China revenue fell 14.6% to $32.0 million, down $5.5 million from the comparable period. Oatly attributed the decline in China mainly to competition in the foodservice market. In North America, revenue increased 2.8% to $63.8 million, up $1.7 million, with growth driven mainly by the retail channel. The figures show broad-based growth in Europe and International Markets alongside weakness in China and slower growth in North America.
Gross margin was 34.1% in the third quarter, up 4.4 percentage points from the same period a year earlier. The company said the improvement benefited from better supply-chain efficiency and pricing and product mix. In contrast, energy and logistics costs and U.S. freight constraints weighed on the margin. The margin increase coincided with a cut to the full-year adjusted earnings forecast, which management linked to fuel and freight inflation and the delayed impact of mitigation measures. Flatin said the timing of these delays "will negatively impact our earnings in the fourth quarter" and lead to a reduction in the 2026 adjusted earnings forecast.
The company also cited conflict-related inflation in the Middle East and its impact on operating costs among the cost factors it faces. In its outlook update, Oatly kept its 2026 capital expenditure range at $20–30 million, unchanged from its previous estimate. The company tied this forecast to the assumption that the impact of the conflict in the Middle East would not worsen beyond what was expected when it was set. It also expected foreign-exchange rates to support annual revenue growth by about 200 to 250 basis points based on recent exchange rates. These estimates remain part of its full-year outlook, alongside the unchanged constant-currency revenue growth range.
Oatly ended the quarter on September 30, 2026, with $23.3 million in cash and cash equivalents, against total outstanding debt of $523.2 million. The company is continuing its strategic review of its Greater China business and expects to complete it during 2026. It did not guarantee that the review would result in a transaction or strategic change. The review is relevant to the performance of the Chinese market, where revenue declined in the third quarter amid competition in foodservice. OTLY shares closed at $11.75 on October 27, 2026, according to EL7 data.