Oyu Tolgoi Concentrate Exports to China Fall 70% as Border Crossing Slows
Key Facts
Oyu Tolgoi’s operator said copper concentrate exports to China fell by about 70% in the two weeks before its Oct. 29 statement, as cross-border traffic slowed. The Associated Press, citing the company, reported that the number of truck convoys carrying concentrate fell to about 4 a day from the usual rate of 12 to 13. This is putting pressure on the mine’s export flows to China, the world’s largest consumer of copper and coal, with Mongolia a major supplier of both commodities. The disruption is concentrated at China’s Ganqimaodu port, opposite Mongolia’s Gashuunsukhait crossing. Local media reports estimated exports had fallen by about $300 million compared with normal operating conditions, but the company did not confirm that figure to the Associated Press.
Local reports said the decline could reach $1.2 billion if restrictions continue through the end of the year, an estimate contingent on the slowdown persisting rather than a confirmed loss. The estimate comes as Mongolia’s copper concentrate exports reached about 2 million tons in the first nine months of 2026, according to figures cited by local reports and carried by the Associated Press. The trade figures underscore the Mongolian economy’s reliance on minerals and Chinese markets: mining accounts for about a quarter of the country’s gross domestic product. In the previous year, coal and copper concentrate together made up 82.3% of Mongolia’s goods exports, while China took 89.4% of the country’s total exports. The crossing slowdown therefore affects more than shipments from the mine, disrupting a key trade route for Mongolian exports.
Mongolian border officials attributed the slowdown to infrastructure and technology upgrades at China’s Ganqimaodu port. Mongolian authorities said China introduced an in-vehicle facial recognition system for truck drivers in August, and installation and maintenance work had affected the crossing’s capacity to process freight traffic. The Chinese Embassy in Ulaanbaatar told the Mongolian government that upgrade work, which had been expected to finish in late September, could continue through the end of December. Mongolia’s transport and roads minister said all transport routes on the Mongolian side remained open and that the government was unaware of any political motives behind the restrictions. The end-of-December date provides a possible timeframe for the slowdown to continue, according to what the embassy told the government.
The restrictions have also affected coal exports through the Gashuunsukhait crossing, where the number of vehicles passing through fell to just over 1,000 a day from 1,300 before the slowdown, Mongolian authorities said. This shows the disruption extends beyond copper shipments to include another major commodity in the country’s trade with China. Rio Tinto said in June that it owns 66% of Oyu Tolgoi, with the Mongolian government holding 34%. The company added that the mine had returned $6.1 billion to Mongolia in taxes, fees and other payments since 2010, and employs about 17,000 people, 97.8% of them Mongolian. Rio Tinto aims for the mine to average about 500,000 tons of copper production a year between 2028 and 2036, while keeping its consolidated copper production forecast at 800 to 870 thousand tons for 2026; that forecast covers the group and is not limited to Oyu Tolgoi.
China’s industrial activity data provide the next checkpoint for demand in the importing market. The country’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index stood at 50.1% in September, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and entering expansion territory, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. The bureau’s calendar lists the next monthly report for Oct. 31, 2026, at 9:30 local time. The date marks the release of the next reading, with no forecast for it provided in the calendar. The data come amid disruptions to Mongolian coal and copper flows through the crossing linking the two countries.