Washington Warns Allies of Possible Resumption of Iran Strikes After November 3 Election
Key Facts
U.S. officials have urged countries in the Middle East and regional allies to prepare for the possibility of military action against Iran resuming after the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 3, as well as for the possibility that Tehran could retaliate against them, the Associated Press reported, citing two diplomats briefed on the warnings. The warnings put the risk of escalation at the forefront of regional calculations, with potential spillover to energy facilities and critical infrastructure. But the diplomats stressed that Trump had not made a final decision on launching new strikes. The agency said a possible date for resuming strikes after Election Day remained unclear. The warning comes amid tensions over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and reciprocal threats concerning vessel traffic.
Washington told its allies that a possible military campaign could last several days and asked them to take precautions in case Iran targeted energy facilities and critical infrastructure, according to the diplomats cited by the Associated Press. This does not mean a decision to launch strikes has been made; the diplomats said Trump had not made up his mind. The United States has not struck Iran since early September, the agency reported. The timing of any possible resumption after the election remains unclear. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran was "still giving diplomacy a chance to succeed" and was working with mediators to review ideas put forward in a proposal last month as a basis for returning to a ceasefire.
In the Gulf, the Associated Press cited Iranian television as reporting that the Revolutionary Guard's navy had threatened to strike U.S. bases in the region if Washington continued helping commercial vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz. The threat coincided with oil tankers continuing to cross under U.S. military protection along a protected route near the Omani coast, according to the agency. It said operators were disabling positioning systems and phones during night voyages, while the tankers transferred oil to other vessels waiting in the Gulf of Oman to ship it to customers in Asia. Tehran said seven tankers caught fire or were damaged in the strait on the night of Thursday, October 22, but the Associated Press said it could not independently verify Iran's account. The agency reported, citing Lloyd's List Intelligence, that 28 attacks on ships were recorded in October, the highest number since the start of the war.
The British military maritime monitor said October saw the highest number of reported attacks on commercial shipping since March, the Associated Press reported, while warning that some shipping companies were reluctant to report incidents. The continued movement of tankers under U.S. protection reflects an effort to keep oil flowing through the strait despite rising risks, while some cargo travels at night through a corridor near Oman before being transferred to vessels bound for Asia. The route's importance is clear in U.S. Energy Information Administration figures: oil flows through Hormuz averaged 20.9 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025, or about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. About 89% of the crude oil and condensate passing through the strait went to Asian markets during the same period. That share shows how closely Asia's supplies are tied to continued shipping through the passage.
Oil flows through the strait fell to 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 21 million in the second quarter of 2025, according to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. As one alternative export route, Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser said flows through the East-West pipeline had risen from 2 million to 7 million barrels per day. The Energy Information Administration also estimated that pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE could provide capacity of about 4.7 million barrels per day to bypass the strait if supplies were disrupted. These routes provide partial alternative capacity, while on their own they do not match the usual flows through Hormuz. The UAE Foreign Ministry called on the parties to "act wisely and pursue political solutions to help contain tensions," to avoid a return to large-scale operations.
U.N. spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric called for commercial vessels not to be targeted and urged Washington and Tehran to pursue diplomacy to reopen the strait, according to the Associated Press. Araghchi had warned in an opinion article cited by the agency that "any further escalation around the Strait of Hormuz or anywhere else in the region would put civilian lives, the welfare of all countries in the region and the global economy at significant risk." In a parallel regional development, the agency reported that Iran-backed Houthis had attacked oil facilities and airports in Saudi Arabia, and that the Saudi-led coalition had responded with attacks on areas controlled by the Houthis in Yemen. The preparations Washington communicated to its allies remain tied to the possibility of action after the November 3 election, with no date announced for resuming strikes. On the diplomatic track, Araghchi said Tehran continued to work with mediators on the basis of an earlier proposal to return to a ceasefire.