India’s industrial output grows 6.7% in September, missing forecasts as mining contraction deepens
Key Facts
India’s industrial production index grew 6.7% year on year in September 2026, slowing from 7.8% in August, according to data reported by Reuters from the official release. The reading fell short of economists’ forecast of 7.3%, a negative surprise after growth the previous month. The Economic Times described the pace as the weakest in four months. The slowdown reflects a divergence between contraction in mining and growth in manufacturing, with gains broadening across several of its groups. The official quick estimate showed the index at 124.3 points in September, compared with 116.5 points in the same month last year.
Mining and quarrying were the main sources of pressure on the index, with output falling 6.2% year on year in September, compared with a revised decline of 4.6% in August. By contrast, manufacturing output rose 7.6%, but was below August’s revised growth of 8.6%. Manufacturing growth therefore also slowed, although the sector continued to expand year on year. By end use, intermediate goods recorded the strongest growth at 12.2%, followed by capital goods, up 10.4%. Non-durable consumer goods grew 1.4%, the slowest increase among the categories listed in the classification.
Data from India’s Ministry of Statistics showed that growth within manufacturing was uneven, with 17 of 23 groups recording positive growth in September. Electrical equipment led the groups cited, rising 33.9% year on year. Output of rubber and plastic products increased 19.9%, while motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers rose 19.0%. These gains highlight broader activity in certain industrial groups alongside slower overall manufacturing growth. The ministry said the three groups were the largest positive contributors to the month’s growth.
More broadly, India’s industrial output grew 6.8% during April to September 2026, compared with an increase of 4.4% in the same period a year earlier. Meanwhile, the core industries index recorded annual growth of 7.9% in September, accelerating from 5.9% in August, according to separate data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. The sectors identified by the government as core industries with growth included iron ore, electricity, coal, refinery products, cement and steel. Fertilisers, natural gas and crude oil contracted. The core industries index measures something different from the industrial production index, so its reading does not replace the details of the mining decline reported in the September data.
The Ministry of Statistics said September’s quick estimate was prepared with a weighted response rate of 86.5%, while the final revision for August was based on a rate of 92.0%. It said the September estimate is subject to revision in subsequent releases under the industrial production index revision policy. The initial reading may therefore change as more data arrives, while August’s growth of 7.8% is the revised figure Reuters cited for comparison. The index data for October are scheduled for release on November 30, 2026. The next reading will provide a new comparison of mining, manufacturing and electricity performance after the index slowed in September.