Hungary Targets 2.8% Deficit and Growth Above 3% by 2030 as It Prepares to Meet Euro Criteria
Key Facts
Hungary’s government announced a medium-term fiscal and economic program for 2027–2030, targeting a budget deficit of 2.8% of gross domestic product in 2030, compared with a projected 7.5% in 2026, Bloomberg Law reported, citing the program. The program links deficit reduction with stronger growth, setting a target of growth above 3% by the end of the decade. Finance Minister András Kármán said the plan’s goal was “clear and unambiguous: growth above 3% and a deficit below 3%.” The government says the program aims to meet all the criteria for adopting the euro by 2030. But meeting those criteria does not mean Hungary will adopt the single currency that year; the program sets a target date for compliance, not for joining the euro area.
The deficit-cutting effort starts from a high level: the government projects a deficit of 7.5% of GDP in 2026, before it falls to 2.8% in 2030. The announced path would cut the deficit by more than half over the target period, bringing it below the 3% reference threshold associated with the euro criteria. The government says spending restraint is part of the program, which includes cuts to government operating expenses. The path sets a growth target above 3% alongside the deficit goal, rather than presenting spending cuts separately from its ambitions for economic activity. The 3% growth figure is a target the plan aims to reach by 2030, not a conventional annual forecast.
The European Central Bank’s report published in June 2026 illustrates the scale of the existing fiscal challenge: it said Hungary’s deficit in 2025 exceeded the reference value of 3% of GDP. Hungary was subject to an excessive deficit procedure, and the European Union set 2026 as the deadline for correcting the deficit, according to its convergence report published in June. This adds an existing obligation to the government program’s targets through 2030. Budapest must show it can reduce the deficit in line with the path it announced, while the projected 2026 level remains far above the final target. The move from the projected deficit to the target level is the plan’s main fiscal test.
The criteria for adopting the euro extend beyond public finances: they include price stability, sound public finances, exchange-rate stability, low and stable long-term interest rates, and alignment of national legislation with European Union rules. The European Central Bank said Hungary does not participate in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, ERM II, one of the elements linked to currency stability. The June 2026 convergence report also said that the legislation of the five countries it reviewed, including Hungary, was not fully compatible with the legal requirements for adopting the euro. Hungary’s compliance path therefore combines addressing fiscal imbalances with work on monetary and legal requirements. Based on its stated goal, the program does not determine when the currency will be adopted after the criteria are met.