Reuters Poll’s Median 2026 Gold Forecast Falls to $4,495 an Ounce
Key Facts
Analysts and traders cut their median gold price forecast for 2026 to $4,495 an ounce, from $4,509 in the previous poll three months earlier, according to a Reuters poll of 30 participants conducted in the three weeks before publication. This marked the second consecutive quarterly cut, amid rising Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and expectations that interest rates would remain elevated for longer. Reuters said the Iran war had driven up oil prices and yields and boosted the dollar, weakening the appeal of non-yielding gold. The metal hit a record $5,595 an ounce in January before falling to about $4,000 at the time of the report on October 27. In EL7 data, the gold instrument closed at $4,051.6 on October 28.
Despite cutting its 2026 forecast, participants raised their median gold forecast for 2027 to $4,650 an ounce, from $4,610 in the previous poll. The divergence between the two forecasts indicates that the reduction in estimates for the current year did not extend to the following year in the poll. By contrast, Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper said prices could consolidate and recover in the coming months. She added that this could coincide with the market’s focus shifting to moving away from the dollar and currency depreciation. She said: "We expect prices to consolidate and recover in the coming months as the market’s focus shifts to moving away from the dollar and currency depreciation."
In the near term, UBS said gold could retest support near $4,000 an ounce, where it expects structural buyers to establish a price floor. That level is central to the bank’s view of the metal’s trajectory after its retreat from the January peak. UBS said central-bank purchases remained strong in September, according to preliminary data. The bank expects annual central-bank purchases to range between 750 and 1,000 metric tons. Reuters also said central-bank buying and physical demand, including from India and China, could continue to support gold.
World Gold Council data show gold ended September at $4,176 an ounce, down 8.5% for the month. The council’s model linked the decline to a 53-basis-point rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 5.3%, and a 2% increase in the dollar index during the month. Meanwhile, global gold exchange-traded funds recorded inflows of $10 billion, equivalent to 67 tons, in September. Funds listed in the United Kingdom attracted 54 tons in the third quarter, with inflows in 12 of the 13 weeks through September 25. The People’s Bank of China added 23 tons to its reserves in September, its largest monthly addition since October 2023, bringing its third-quarter purchases to 63 tons.
The divergence in outlook between the two metals extended to silver forecasts, with participants projecting an average of $66.75 an ounce in 2027, versus $70.30 for the current year, while the price cited at the time of the report was $53. Reuters said silver’s dual role as a precious and industrial metal made it more exposed than gold to expectations that interest rates would remain elevated for longer. Analysts cited weak demand for photovoltaic panels, alongside the substitution of alternatives in manufacturing. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting was scheduled for October 27 and 28, 2026. The meeting statement was released on October 28 at 2:00 p.m.