Diesel Exports Fall 700,000 Barrels a Day as Russian and Middle Eastern Supplies Tighten
Key Facts
The International Energy Agency said global diesel exports fell by 700,000 barrels a day year over year in September 2026, after supplies from other sources replaced only part of a 1.3 million-barrel-a-day loss from Russia and the Middle East. The decline comes as supplies of refined products shrink, even as global oil supply rises. In its Oil Market Report, published on 14 October, the agency forecast refinery runs would reach a seasonal trough of 81.3 million barrels a day in October before rising to 84.6 million by year-end. It also projected global runs would fall by 2.3 million barrels a day in 2026, then increase by 2.8 million in 2027. The figures highlight the gap between crude availability and refineries’ ability to produce the fuels markets need.
The decline in diesel was accompanied by weaker seaborne supplies. The agency said average seaborne diesel and gasoil exports were 4.7 million barrels a day in the first eight months of 2026, down 10% from the same period a year earlier. On 2 October, it said flows of refined products from the Middle East remained severely constrained despite a recovery in crude exports, while Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries added pressure to the diesel market. In its estimate, Russian refinery runs fell to 3.8 million barrels a day in June, their lowest level in more than 20 years and about 30% below the previous year. Losses from Russia and the Middle East thus coincided with a decline in global seaborne shipments, while increases from other sources were not enough to offset them.
The agency said prolonged supply disruptions forced the market to draw on diesel inventories at an unseasonal time, ahead of autumn refinery maintenance and peak winter demand. By contrast, it forecast global oil demand would fall by 2.5 million barrels a day year over year in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the average decline reaching 2.6 million for the year. Diesel accounts for 25% of the projected demand decline in the fourth quarter. In inventories, observed global stocks fell by 10 million barrels in September after onshore stocks declined by 113 million, while an increase in oil at sea offset much of the drop. By the end of September, global inventories were 509 million barrels below their level at the end of February, showing the scale of the cumulative draw over the period.
Supply data paint a different picture from the tight market for products: global oil supply rose by 2.5 million barrels a day month over month to 102.3 million in September, led by Gulf producers. But the agency expects average annual supply to fall by 5.8 million barrels a day to 100.7 million in 2026, before rising by 7.7 million in 2027. Higher crude flows do not necessarily mean diesel supplies are improving at the same pace, as refining and shipping remain crucial to getting products to buyers. In Russia, the agency said repairs to severely damaged secondary processing units could take six to eight months on average. It added that the Moscow refinery, with capacity of 250,000 barrels a day, was reported to remain shut until early 2027 after sustaining heavy damage in a June attack.
Security developments in the region point to additional risks for shipping, without establishing the extent of damage to Gulf refineries. Iran said 7 oil tankers caught fire or were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz overnight on 21 October, while the Associated Press said it could not independently verify the claims. The agency cited Lloyd’s List Intelligence as recording 28 attacks on ships in October, the highest number since the war began. Separately, Brent crude rose 1.3% to $115.36 a barrel on 28 October at 0140 GMT after the Houthis said they had targeted Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery, which has capacity of 550,000 barrels a day; Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the attack. The incidents remain indicators of risks to transport and supplies, while the actual impact depends on whether disruptions and shipping delays continue.
In a sign of trade being redirected, the first Russian diesel cargo bound for the United States sailed under a new import agreement. A Russian official said the cargo amounted to 40,000 tonnes, or about 300,000 barrels, compared with U.S. consumption of about 4 million barrels a day. The Associated Press estimated its size was equivalent to about 7% of U.S. consumption in one day. Looking further ahead, the International Energy Agency expects the gasoil and diesel market to return to surplus in the first quarter of 2027 as refinery output rises, with inventories increasing broadly in line with their usual seasonal pattern. But it said the improvement would not make up for the accumulated deficit during 2026 and that the market would remain very tight well into 2027.