GE Vernova Expects Gas Order Prices to Rise 50% and Books $29.3 Billion in Orders
Key Facts
GE Vernova said prices for gas equipment orders per kilowatt in 2026 are expected to be about 50% higher than 2025 levels, alongside $29.3 billion in orders in the third quarter, an organic increase of 96%, according to the company’s filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The backlog stood at $197 billion at quarter-end, after increasing by $20 billion sequentially. Management, however, expected the price per kilowatt of gas orders in the fourth quarter to be lower than in the third quarter, due to a mix that includes lower-priced units. It said third-quarter order pricing exceeded the fourth quarter of 2025 by more than 20 points, with the product mix contributing to that increase. The figures put higher prices alongside backlog growth, as attention shifts to converting reservations into actual orders and deliveries.
The company added 11 gigawatts of new gas equipment contracts in the third quarter, including 8 gigawatts of slot reservation agreements and 3 gigawatts of orders. It also converted 13 gigawatts of prior reservations into orders and shipped 5 gigawatts of equipment during the period. The backlog of gas equipment and slot reservation agreements rose from 116 to 122 gigawatts between the start and end of the quarter. The company said it aims to reach at least 130 gigawatts of contracted gas equipment by the end of 2026.
GE Vernova raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $46.5–47.5 billion, from $45.5–46.5 billion previously. It also raised its forecast for adjusted EBITDA margin to 13.5–14.5%, compared with 12–14%. Its free cash flow outlook is now $16–17 billion, up from a previous estimate of $11.5–12.5 billion. The company said it expects its backlog to exceed $200 billion in the fourth quarter, with margins improving. It also expects to end 2026 with at least 130 gigawatts of gas equipment under contract, making the conversion of reservations into orders one measure to track against its forecasts.
In a separate deal announced alongside its third-quarter results, GE Vernova agreed to acquire Trench Group for the equivalent of $9 billion. The company said the deal is expected to close in late 2027, subject to customary regulatory approvals. In October, the board increased its share repurchase authorization to $20 billion from $10 billion. In trading, a report published on October 29 said the stock fell by as much as 6% during the results session before closing at $878.03 on October 28. EL7 data shows it closed at $895.08 on October 27, then $878.03 the following day; these prices alone do not identify the reason for the stock’s change.
Attention ahead is focused on the backlog and conversions from slot reservations to orders. Investing.com cited BNP Paribas as saying reservation conversions will need to increase each quarter through the first half of 2027. The analyst said 62 gigawatts of slot reservation additions between late 2025 and mid-2026 are approaching conversion dates. The company had said it expects its backlog to exceed $200 billion in the fourth quarter, while the source does not specify a date for the next quarterly report. A 24/7 Wall St. report described the fourth-quarter report as a test of those expectations. The company is targeting at least 130 gigawatts of contracted gas equipment by the end of 2026.