Ford Raises 2026 Profit Forecast Floor to $10.5 Billion Despite Commodity Costs
Key Facts
Ford raised the lower end of its 2026 adjusted earnings before interest and taxes forecast by $500 million to $10.5 billion, while keeping the upper end at $11 billion, according to Reuters. The move came as it reported adjusted earnings of $2.7 billion in the third quarter, up from $2.6 billion in the same period last year. The company posted revenue of $49.5 billion and net income of $2 billion. But revenue fell 2% from $50.5 billion a year earlier, while net income declined from $2.4 billion. The figures show a modest improvement in adjusted earnings alongside declines in revenue and net income, as Ford kept the upper end of its annual forecast unchanged.
By contrast, Ford raised its estimate for commodity costs during the year to about $2.5 billion, from about $2 billion previously, according to Reuters. The company attributed the pressure to factors including the conflict in the Middle East and higher prices for copper, steel, fuel and chips. The cost impact extended to Ford Pro, which reported earnings before interest and taxes of $1.7 billion, down 16% year over year. The coverage said the unit’s lower earnings reflected higher commodity costs, along with temporary launch costs tied to Super Duty production. Ford said its prices were on track to end the year up 1%, while an RBC analyst said strong demand gives automakers good pricing power. The guidance places higher input costs alongside the company’s ability to adjust prices during the year.
Across its business units, Ford Blue reported earnings before interest and taxes of $1.4 billion, down 10%, which the company attributed mainly to lower volume after discontinuing some models and the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Ford Model e, meanwhile, posted a loss of $1.1 billion before interest and taxes, with the loss improving 25% year over year, according to Reuters. Ford’s data show the unit’s loss was $1.058 billion in the third quarter of 2026, compared with $1.410 billion in the corresponding period of 2025. In sales, Ford’s estimated share of the U.S. retail market was 12.1%, up 0.4 percentage points year over year after excluding the planned discontinuation of the Escape and Corsair. The company’s total sales were 509,764 vehicles, down 6.6%, but volume was roughly flat after excluding the two models, while the sector declined by about 1%.
Production operations faced separate pressure when F-150 truck production was disrupted for about a week in the month before the results announcement because of an issue at a supplier that Ford did not detail, according to Reuters. Chief Financial Officer Sherry House said the operational recovery at Novelis was "largely behind us." At the same time, Ford produced 110,275 Super Duty trucks during the quarter, up 4.4% from a year earlier, marking the model’s highest quarterly production in 19 years. On liquidity, operating cash flow was $5.4 billion and adjusted free cash flow was $4.7 billion during the quarter. The company kept its 2026 adjusted free cash flow forecast in a range of $6 billion to $7 billion.
Despite adjusted earnings exceeding market expectations and the lower end of its annual guidance rising, Ford shares fell about 1% after the results session closed on October 28, according to Reuters. The shares had closed at $11.71 on October 27, according to EL7 data. Chief Executive Jim Farley said the company was "entering a pivotal phase of its transformation," citing the launch of the Universal Electric Vehicle platform, Ford Energy, a new version of the F-150 and a new lineup of vehicles globally over the coming years. Sherry House added that Ford expects its underlying profitability in 2027 to be roughly in line with 2026. The company also announced a regular fourth-quarter cash dividend of 15 cents per share, payable on December 1 to shareholders of record on November 10.