Ford Raises Low End of 2026 Adjusted EBIT Forecast to $10.5 Billion
Key Facts
Ford raised the low end of its 2026 adjusted earnings before interest and taxes forecast to $10.5 billion, from $10 billion previously, while keeping the high end at $11 billion, according to a company filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The revision reflects an improved view of annual operating performance, but is not a forecast for net income. The announcement came as the company reported third-quarter revenue of $49.5 billion, down 2% from $50.5 billion a year earlier. By contrast, adjusted EBIT rose to $2.7 billion from $2.6 billion, and its margin increased to 5.4% from 5.1%. Adjusted earnings per share also beat analysts' estimates, at $0.49 versus a forecast of $0.41, while revenue exceeded the $48.9 billion estimate.
The higher low end did not change Ford's other full-year forecasts: the company kept its adjusted free cash flow estimate at between $6 billion and $7 billion, and capital expenditure at between $9.5 billion and $10.5 billion. In the first nine months of 2026, revenue was nearly flat at $141.1 billion, compared with $141.4 billion in the same period a year earlier. Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes for the period, however, rose to $8.6 billion from $5.7 billion. In the third quarter alone, net income attributable to Ford fell to $2.049 billion, from $2.447 billion a year earlier. The comparison across these metrics shows a divergence between lower revenue and net income on one hand, and improved adjusted operating profit and margin on the other.
Commodity costs remain one of the main pressures on the outlook: Ford raised its estimate for their annual impact to about $2.5 billion, from nearly $2 billion in its previous estimate. The company cited the conflict in the Middle East and higher prices for copper, steel, fuel and chips among the factors. At the same time, its 2026 assumptions include a $1 billion reduction in material and warranty costs, excluding tariffs and Novelis. Chief Financial Officer Sherry House said the outlook includes “achieving our warranty and material cost reduction targets and improving Ford Model e profitability year over year.” Ford said lower tariffs and a favorable product mix partly offset cost pressures.
The company's segments delivered mixed results in the third quarter. Ford Model e, which focuses on electric vehicles, posted an operating loss of $1.1 billion, but the loss narrowed 25% year over year. Ford Pro reported operating profit of $1.7 billion, down 16% from the same period. Ford attributed the segment's performance to higher commodity costs and temporary launch expenses related to the start of Super Duty production at the Oakville Complex. Ford Blue posted operating profit of $1.4 billion, down 10% from a year earlier. Ford Credit's pretax earnings rose 27% to $803 million.
Ford had liquidity of $46.4 billion at the end of the third quarter, including $25.3 billion in cash. The company declared a regular fourth-quarter cash dividend of 15 cents per share, payable on December 1 to shareholders of record on November 10. In regular trading on October 28, the stock rose 2.05% to $11.95, then fell 1.41% in after-hours trading to $11.78, according to a report citing Reuters. The stock closed at $11.95 that day, according to EL7 data. The move places the session's gains and after-hours decline in the context of the earnings and outlook announcement, without changing the company's reported financial figures.
Ford said it expects its underlying profitability in 2027 to be roughly in line with 2026. The company aims to bring 20 gigawatt-hours of annual capacity online at Ford Energy by the end of 2027 and reach full run rate in the third quarter of 2028. Its guidance is based on its outlook and best estimates as of October 28, 2026. Ford also said the estimates do not include the potential impact of a major escalation in the conflict in the Middle East or a significant downturn in the U.S. economy, either of which could severely affect demand. The assumptions do not include changes in U.S. policy or future tariffs that had not been announced by that date, or changes that other governments may announce afterward.