Eldorado cuts 2026 gold production outlook to 425,000–475,000 ounces
Key Facts
Eldorado Gold cut its 2026 consolidated gold production outlook to a range of 425,000–475,000 ounces, from 495,000–600,000 ounces previously, in an update issued on October 28. The revised estimate includes output from Skouries and the McLellans Brook project, while the company also lowered its outlook for existing operating assets, excluding the two projects, to 410,000–430,000 ounces from 430,000–490,000 ounces. The company said strong performance at Lamaque, supported by a higher contribution from high-grade Ormaque ore, partly offset lower expected production at Kisladag and Olympias. It added the slower start-up at Skouries to these factors, making the outlook cut broader than the impact of the Greek project alone. The company's shares fell 6.1% to C$45.29 on Thursday morning in Toronto after the results were published.
The steepest revision was at Skouries, where Eldorado cut its 2026 gold production outlook for the mine to 10,000–35,000 ounces, compared with a previous forecast of 60,000–100,000 ounces. The company expects commercial production to begin in late Q4 2026. Chief Executive Christian Milau said the start-up "has taken longer and cost more than we expected." The mine produced its first copper-gold concentrate on September 8, but the start of initial production has yet to translate into commercial operations. In an operational update on October 26, the company said the leaching plant has six presses; four must be operating to support commercial production on sulfide ore, and five to reach nameplate capacity.
The company raised its capital estimate for the Skouries project to about $1.425 billion, with an increase of $65 million in project costs and $45 million in growth capital that had been expected after commercial production and is now expected before it. It estimated accelerated operating capital at about $390 million, after increases of $95 million in operating costs and $35 million in sustaining capital that had been planned after commercial production and is now required before it. The company thereby distinguishes actual increases in construction and operating costs from spending that has been retimed to the pre-commercial-production period. Additional expenditures could reach a further $30 million, depending on the actual date commercial production begins. This means total spending could be affected again by the timing of the transition from commissioning to commercial production.
Investment in Skouries and McLellans Brook weighed on consolidated free cash flow, which recorded a deficit of $191.1 million in the third quarter of 2026, compared with a deficit of $87.4 million in the same period of 2025. The company said free cash flow, excluding the two projects, was $98.3 million in the third quarter, compared with $76.9 million a year earlier. In the second quarter of 2026, consolidated free cash flow was negative $334.1 million, while it was $40.9 million excluding the two projects. At the same time, results showed adjusted earnings of $127.0 million, or $0.49 a share, compared with $82.3 million and $0.41 a share in the third quarter of 2025. Cash and cash equivalents were $396.8 million on September 30, 2026, compared with $1,043.9 million on the same date a year earlier.
The Northern Miner quoted Jefferies analyst Fahad Tariq as saying that the capital increase and lower 2026 production "reinforce execution concerns heading into 2027," while maintaining his buy recommendation. The next operational steps Milau outlined are to safely complete the remaining commissioning work, achieve commercial production, and then establish consistent, predictable performance. The company said it expects Skouries and McLellans Brook to reach commercial production in late Q4 2026. Skouries' timing remains a direct factor in the amount of potential additional expenditures, which could reach $30 million. The project's progress also links the commercial production target to operating the leaching presses needed to support sulfide ore processing.