Carlsberg Holds 2026 Profit Growth Forecast at 4% to 6% Despite 6.7% Fall in Asia Volumes
Key Facts
Carlsberg kept its forecast for organic operating profit growth in 2026 at 4% to 6%, despite a 6.7% decline in organic beverage volumes in Asia in the third quarter. The company said in its third-quarter trading statement that the decline was driven mainly by China, without specifying a separate rate for the fall in volumes there. The guidance was based on operating profit of DKK 13.686 billion in 2025 under the company’s performance measure. By contrast, organic volumes in Asia excluding China rose 1%, highlighting diverging market performance within the region. Chief Executive Jacob Aarup-Andersen said revenue growth reflected good momentum in many markets and the resilience of its multi-beverage portfolio, which "more than offset the trading challenges in China."
Carlsberg attributed weakness in China to a decline in consumer sentiment and inventory reductions after heavy rain fell during the peak season in June and July. The company said the rain increased inventory levels, prompting a drawdown during the quarter. Organic revenue in Asia fell 4.6% over the same period, a slower pace than the decline in volumes. Revenue per hectoliter rose 2%, supported by price increases and a positive brand and country mix. The region’s revenue performance therefore combined lower volumes with improved returns per unit.
Performance also varied by beverage category: carbonated soft drink volumes grew 9% and non-alcoholic beverage volumes rose 11% in the third quarter. By contrast, premium beer volumes fell 3%, which the company attributed mainly to weak performance in China over the summer. Outside China, the premium beer portfolio recorded mid-single-digit growth. Volumes of Carlsberg’s premium brand rose 20%, driven mainly by South Asia and China. These figures show differing product and market trends across the portfolio during the quarter.
By region, organic volumes rose 0.3% in Western Europe and 7.5% in Central and Eastern Europe and India. These increases contrasted with the 6.7% decline in Asia and point to differing growth across the regions where the company operates. In China, gross domestic product grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter and 4.6% in the first three quarters of 2026. Chinese industrial value added rose 5.5% in September, while value added in the beverage and refined tea industry increased 5.5% during the month. These were economic and industrial indicators for the same period in which Carlsberg reported its quarterly results.
The company also maintained its other 2026 financial forecasts, including investment and financing income and expenses of about DKK 1.8 billion, excluding foreign exchange differences. Its estimate for the effective tax rate remained about 23%, and capital expenditure was forecast at DKK 6 billion to DKK 7 billion. In an update to its currency assumptions, Carlsberg said exchange rates as of October 28 pointed to a positive translation effect of about DKK 100 million on 2026 operating profit. Its previous assumption was no currency translation effect. The company said the macroeconomic environment and business development remained broadly in line with its forecasts presented in August.
Carlsberg nevertheless expected consumer sentiment to remain weak and volatility to stay elevated for the rest of the year. This follows a reading of 50.1 for China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index in September, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and in expansion territory. China’s statistics bureau calendar lists October 31, 2026, as the release date for the next monthly PMI reading. In market data recorded by EL7, CABJF closed at $144.51 on October 23, and the figure was the same on October 27. Carlsberg also listed February 9 as the date in its financial calendar for its 2026 financial statement and annual report, according to the statement.