WCS Crude Discount at $28 a Barrel in Hardisty, According to October 21 Assessment
Key Facts
S&P Global Energy assessed the discount for Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude at Hardisty, Alberta, at $28.00 a barrel on October 21, against the calendar-month average for West Texas Intermediate (WTI). The assessment provides a documented figure for crude at the Hardisty delivery point, not a figure above $30 on October 28. In the same assessment, the WCS discount at Nederland was $19.50 a barrel. The difference between the two figures reflects variation in differentials between delivery locations, so the Hardisty assessment should not be treated as a U.S. Gulf Coast price. The company said market pressure on WCS differentials was linked to increased supply and competition from other heavy crude grades.
S&P Global cited market sources as saying increased supply and growing competition from other heavy crude grades bound for the U.S. Gulf Coast had weighed on WCS differentials. The sources cited Venezuelan Merey crude as an example of this competition. These factors link the pressure to the availability of heavy alternatives in the Gulf Coast market, where Canadian crude competes with other grades for buyers. The assessment does not cite Gulf Coast refinery maintenance among the reasons for the differential moves it discussed. The Hardisty and Nederland figures also refer to different delivery locations, an important distinction when comparing Canadian prices with those in the U.S. market.
Pipeline data offer another part of the market backdrop: November allocations on the Mainline system were 16% at Superior for heavy crude and 7% at Kerrobert as a second allocation point. The Superior allocation covers Lines 6 and 61, according to S&P Global. Allocations at two points indicate constraints on available shipping capacity through the system during the month, as Canadian supplies compete for transportation and delivery outlets. But these percentages refer to November pipeline allocations and, on their own, do not determine the extent of their effect on the WCS discount recorded on October 21. The transportation figures, alongside Gulf Coast competition, put supply and delivery factors in context without attributing the price move to a single cause.
Looking ahead to production, S&P Global Energy CERA analysts forecast Canadian oil output, including pentanes and condensates, at 5.5 million barrels a day in 2026, then 5.8 million in 2027 and 6 million in 2028. The projection puts output on a rising trajectory over the three years, alongside the supply pressures and competition described by market sources. The figures provide context for the expected scale of Canadian supply, but do not measure actual flows in October or WCS shipments alone. They also include pentanes and condensates, according to the forecast definition, and should not be equated with heavy crude production alone. The discount assessment at each delivery location remains tied to its benchmark price and the market it serves.
In the assumptions in its October 28 Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of Canada put oil prices on a path similar to Brent, with WTI holding near $70 a barrel and WCS near $55 by the end of 2028. The bank assumed Brent would reach about $100 in the fourth quarter of 2026, before gradually declining to around $75 by the end of 2028. These are long-term assumptions in the bank's report, not spot prices or an assessment of the WCS-to-WTI differential in October. The benchmark path places Canadian crude within the bank's assumptions for oil markets through the end of 2028, while the $28.00-a-barrel figure remains a separate measure of the Hardisty discount on October 21. The Bank of Canada set December 9, 2026, as the date of its next announcement on the overnight rate target.