EL7.AI
Macro EconomyMediumUpdated×2•Originally published 29 October 2026•Updated 30 October 2026•
4 min read

U.S. Debt Exceeds GDP at 100.03% at End of Fiscal 2026

Key Facts

1Debt held by the public reached $32.2 trillion, equal to 100.03% of GDP at the end of fiscal 2026.
2Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026, after 2.2% in the second quarter.
3The Congressional Budget Office projected debt would rise to 120% of GDP in 2036, compared with a previous peak of 106% in 1946.
4The Congressional Budget Office projected a deficit of $1.9 trillion, or 5.8% of GDP, in fiscal 2026.

U.S. debt held by the public exceeded the size of annual gross domestic product, reaching 100.03% at the end of the fiscal year that ended on Sept. 30, 2026, the Wall Street Journal reported on Oct. 29. The balance of this debt stood at $32.2 trillion on that date, according to government data cited by the report. The ratio could be calculated only after third-quarter GDP data were released, when the debt equaled "100%, or 100.03% to be precise," of GDP during the fiscal year, according to the newspaper. Debt had reached about 99% of GDP at the end of fiscal 2025, up from about 98% at the end of 2024, according to the Government Accountability Office. The ratio thus moved from just below GDP to above it, while economic growth remained strong in the third quarter.

The breach of the 100% threshold coincided with real gross domestic product growth accelerating to an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, from 2.2% in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate. The bureau said an acceleration in investment and a rebound in government spending contributed to the increase in growth. Exports declined, however, while imports rose at a faster pace than in the previous quarter. EL7's reading of actual growth was 3.4%, compared with its forecast of 3.2% and a previous reading of 2.2%. The 3.4% figure is an annualized growth rate calculated from the quarterly change in GDP, not an increase of 3.4% over the three months alone.

The GDP release showed a slowdown in inflation as measured by the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, to an annualized rate of 2.5% in the third quarter, compared with 3.3% in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the latest monthly reading available before the GDP data were released, the core index rose 3.0% from its level a year earlier in August and increased 0.2% from the previous month. The third-quarter reading describes an annualized pace calculated from the quarterly change, while the 3.0% rate measures the change over 12 months and 0.2% measures the monthly change. The bureau set Nov. 25, 2026, as the release date for its second estimate of third-quarter GDP and corporate profits. That release will update the estimate of economic growth for the same period.

The Congressional Budget Office's 2026 projections put the debt ratio on a rising path, but were published before the actual figure at the end of the fiscal year was calculated. The office then estimated that debt held by the public would reach 101% of GDP in 2026 and rise to 120% in 2036, exceeding the previous peak of 106% in 1946. The 120% figure remains a long-term projection, while the 100.03% figure replaced the 101% forecast for the end of fiscal 2026 after GDP data were released. The office estimated the fiscal 2026 deficit at $1.9 trillion, or 5.8% of GDP, in its published baseline projections, compared with an average deficit of 3.8% of GDP over the past 50 years. It also projected the deficit would rise to $3.1 trillion, or 6.7% of GDP, in 2036.

The Congressional Budget Office projected federal spending would reach 23.3% of GDP in 2026, above its 50-year average of 21.2%. The office said spending would remain near that level through 2028 before gradually rising to 24.4% of GDP in 2036. It attributed the trajectory to higher spending on mandatory programs and rising net interest costs. In fiscal 2025, the federal budget deficit was $1.8 trillion, according to the Government Accountability Office. Interest expenses on debt held by the public also nearly doubled over three fiscal years, from about $500 billion in 2022 to about $1 trillion in 2025.

Debt held by the public, which stood at $32.2 trillion at the end of September, differs from total national debt measured at face value. Total debt exceeded $40 trillion in August 2026, after reaching $39 trillion in March and $38 trillion in October 2025, according to the Associated Press. The Bipartisan Policy Center estimated that the United States could reach its $41.1 trillion debt ceiling between late winter and mid-summer 2027, requiring Congress to vote to raise or suspend the limit. White House spokesman Kush Desai said the administration had focused on "cutting waste, fraud and abuse in federal spending" and accelerating economic growth to improve the debt-to-GDP trajectory. The Government Accountability Office warned that repeated debt-ceiling confrontations had caused disruption and uncertainty in the Treasury market and raised borrowing costs.