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Macro EconomyMediumUpdated×3•Originally published 28 October 2026•Updated 28 October 2026•
3 min read

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Reaches $134.9 Billion in September, Exceeding Economists’ Forecasts

Key Facts

1The goods trade deficit was $134.9 billion in September, up $2.8 billion from August.
2Economists surveyed by Reuters forecast a deficit of $130.2 billion, while the deficit increased 2.1%.
3Goods imports rose to $344.1 billion in September, up $8.1 billion from August.
4Wholesale inventories were $1,011.5 billion at the end of September, up 0.6% month over month and 7.4% year over year.

The U.S. goods trade deficit widened to $134.9 billion in September, up $2.8 billion from August and exceeding forecasts by economists surveyed by Reuters, reflecting imports rising faster than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau said the deficit was $132.1 billion in August before increasing in September. Reuters estimated that the deficit rose 2.1% during the month. Economists surveyed by the agency had forecast a deficit of $130.2 billion, below the reported figure. The figure covers trade in goods, while the advance September report is among early indicators of U.S. trade activity.

Goods exports totaled $209.2 billion in September, up $5.3 billion from August, according to the Census Bureau. Imports, meanwhile, reached $344.1 billion, rising $8.1 billion month over month. The increase in imports thus exceeded the rise in exports, consistent with the deficit widening to $134.9 billion. The comparison between the two months shows movements in both exports and imports, as well as the resulting balance between them. These figures cover goods flows, while the later full release covers trade in both goods and services.

A Reuters report placed trade in the context of its effect on gross domestic product, saying trade had not contributed to GDP growth for three consecutive quarters as of the report’s publication. The agency reported that the AI investment boom is attracting imports, mostly capital goods. This highlights a link between imported goods flows and spending on AI-related infrastructure, according to the report. But the September monthly deficit remains an indicator of goods trade and does not by itself determine trade’s contribution to GDP during the quarter. The reading comes as investors await a broader estimate of U.S. economic activity in the third quarter.

The trade estimate was accompanied by domestic inventory data covered by the advance economic indicators report, alongside goods trade statistics, according to the Census Bureau. The bureau estimated wholesale inventories at $1,011.5 billion at the end of September, up 0.6% from August and 7.4% from September 2025. Retail inventories stood at $885.3 billion at month-end, up 0.3% month over month and 4.8% year over year. These figures add a picture of goods held by businesses and retailers to data on cross-border flows. The report thus combines early estimates of goods trade and domestic wholesale and retail inventories.

The next milestone is the U.S. third-quarter gross domestic product estimate, scheduled for release on October 29 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis calendar. Ahead of its release, Reuters reported that economists it surveyed expected annualized growth of 3.2% for the quarter, with AI investment and consumer spending seen as key drivers. Full September trade data for goods and services are scheduled for release on November 4 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, according to the Census Bureau calendar. Those data will provide a comprehensive reading of trade that includes services, alongside the goods covered in the advance estimate. The two release dates put GDP and full trade data next on the calendar following September’s preliminary reading.